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Currency Crosses: Technical Outlook

Currency Crosses: Technical Outlook

2011-02-23 23:29:00
Jamie Saettele, CMT, Sr. Technical Strategist
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Long Term Trends and Pivot Points (monthly data) (updated on first of the month)

TREND

S3

S2

S1

PL

PH

R1

R2

R3

EURJPY

UP

100.90

103.86

108.09

110.41

111.68

115.28

118.23

122.46

GBPJPY

UP

120.28

123.02

127.18

129.21

130.64

134.09

136.83

140.99

CADJPY

UP

77.37

79.38

80.66

82.30

83.04

83.95

85.96

87.24

AUDJPY

UP

78.32

79.64

80.72

81.92

82.16

83.12

84.44

85.53

EURGBP

DN

0.7945

0.8115

0.8332

0.8478

0.8526

0.8720

0.8889

0.9107

EURCAD

UP

1.2060

1.2418

1.3061

1.3276

1.3561

1.4061

1.4419

1.5062

EURAUD

UP

1.2198

1.2564

1.3146

1.3404

1.3619

1.4093

1.4459

1.5040

Medium Term Trends and Pivot Points (weekly data) (updated every week)

TREND

S3

S2

S1

PL

PH

R1

R2

R3

EURJPY

UP

110.82

111.45

112.66

113.00

113.58

114.49

115.12

116.33

GBPJPY

UP

131.37

132.27

133.72

134.34

134.89

136.06

136.96

138.41

CADJPY

UP

82.81

83.46

83.86

84.38

84.64

84.91

85.56

85.96

AUDJPY

UP

82.43

82.85

83.60

83.87

84.19

84.78

85.21

85.95

EURGBP

DN

0.8260

0.8308

0.8365

0.8407

0.8417

0.8470

0.8517

0.8574

EURCAD

UP

1.3063

1.3160

1.3333

1.3391

1.3467

1.3602

1.3699

1.3872

EURAUD

DN

1.3198

1.3300

1.3397

1.3496

1.3502

1.3595

1.3698

1.3794

*on the charts below, magenta bars/candles indicate key reversals from 20 day high/low and a range for the bar that is at least as large as 20 day ATR (weekly parameter is 13 and monthly parameter is 12)

*green bars/candles indicate the first day of the month

Euro / British Pound

Daily Bars

02-23-11crosses_body_eurgbp.png, Currency Crosses: Technical Outlook

Prepared by Jamie Saettele

As long as the EURGBP is below 8672, there is potential for a drop below 8066 and possibly a test of the downward sloping line drawn off of the June 2009 and June 2010 lows (maybe we’ll get there in June 2011-the line in June 2011 is at about 7730). Allow for a pop above 8531 in order to complete a small flat. Resistance is the 61.8% level at 8563 and 8672 does remain the key level.

Euro / Canadian Dollar

Daily Bars

02-23-11crosses_body_eurcad.png, Currency Crosses: Technical Outlook

Prepared by Jamie Saettele

The decline from the October high is an impulse (5 waves), therefore the larger trend is viewed as down. Near term however, the move above 13659 shifts focus to 13776, a Fibonacci measurement at 13875 (61.8% extension) and finally a former pivot at 14000.

Euro / Australian Dollar

DailyBars

02-23-11crosses_body_euraud.png, Currency Crosses: Technical Outlook

Prepared by Jamie Saettele

The EURAUD drop into 12925 may have completed an ending diagonal pattern (with a throwover in wave v) from the May ‘flash crash’ high-this is bullish. The rally from 12925 has unfolded as an impulse (5 waves) and broken above the upper diagonal line but the advance could also complete a flat-this is neutral. Weakness from 13878 found support at the 61.8% retracement and 50 day average. Expectations are for a strong advance that exceeds 13878 and extends towards the 100% extension at 14237.

Euro / Japanese Yen

Daily Bars

02-23-11crosses_body_eurjpy.png, Currency Crosses: Technical Outlook

Prepared by Jamie Saettele

To review, the EURJPY rally from 10681 consists of 2 equal legs, which is common for corrective moves. Also, the 3 wave rally from 10538 bolsters the bearish pattern. The key level for bears is 11566. My confidence in the larger bearish bias is low at this point, especially since the bearish count involves a leading diagonal and not a clear impulse.

British Pound / Japanese Yen

Daily Bars

02-23-11crosses_body_gbpjpy.png, Currency Crosses: Technical Outlook

Prepared by Jamie Saettele

After slightly exceeding the September high, the GBPJPY has pulled back to test trendline support (the 20 day average is support just below current price). The larger trend is up until further notice and the latest pivot low is the 2/8 low at 13155. Upside objectives include a Fibonacci extension at 13652 and the August high at 13776. Watch the upper channel line for resistance as well.

Canadian Dollar / Japanese Yen

DailyBars

02-23-11crosses_body_cadjpy.png, Currency Crosses: Technical Outlook

Prepared by Jamie Saettele

A choppy uptrend remains intact for the CADJPY as long as price is above 8147. Price has plunged over recent days but found support at the 50 day average. Additional support would be the support line extended off of the November and January lows.

Australian Dollar / Japanese Yen

Daily Bars

02-23-11crosses_body_audjpy.png, Currency Crosses: Technical Outlook

Prepared by Jamie Saettele

“The slight new high satisfies minimum expectations for wave v of the diagonal from 7266.” Still, focus remains on trendline resistance closer to 85-86 until price can break trendline support. Near term risk is higher with the AUDJPY testing trendline support. 8320/50 is short term resistance.

Jamie Saettele publishes Daily Technicals every weekday morning, COT analysis (published Monday), technical analysis of currency crosseson Monday, Wednesday, and Friday (Euro and Yen crosses), and intraday trading strategy as market action dictates at the DailyFX Forex Stream. He is the author of Sentiment in the Forex Market. Send requests to receive his reports via email to jsaettele@dailyfx.com.

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