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Currency Crosses: Technical Outlook

Currency Crosses: Technical Outlook

2011-02-16 23:29:00
Jamie Saettele, CMT, Sr. Technical Strategist
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Long Term Trends and Pivot Points (monthly data) (updated on first of the month)

TREND

S3

S2

S1

PL

PH

R1

R2

R3

EURJPY

UP

100.90

103.86

108.09

110.41

111.68

115.28

118.23

122.46

GBPJPY

UP

120.28

123.02

127.18

129.21

130.64

134.09

136.83

140.99

CADJPY

UP

77.37

79.38

80.66

82.30

83.04

83.95

85.96

87.24

AUDJPY

UP

78.32

79.64

80.72

81.92

82.16

83.12

84.44

85.53

EURGBP

DN

0.7945

0.8115

0.8332

0.8478

0.8526

0.8720

0.8889

0.9107

EURCAD

UP

1.2060

1.2418

1.3061

1.3276

1.3561

1.4061

1.4419

1.5062

EURAUD

UP

1.2198

1.2564

1.3146

1.3404

1.3619

1.4093

1.4459

1.5040

Medium Term Trends and Pivot Points (weekly data) (updated every week)

TREND

S3

S2

S1

PL

PH

R1

R2

R3

EURJPY

UP

109.52

110.37

111.73

112.33

112.83

113.93

114.79

116.14

GBPJPY

UP

129.48

130.52

132.16

132.89

133.50

134.83

135.87

137.51

CADJPY

UP

80.84

81.59

83.07

83.46

84.19

85.30

86.06

87.54

AUDJPY

UP

82.35

82.64

83.14

83.33

83.54

83.94

84.23

84.73

EURGBP

DN

0.8243

0.8315

0.8383

0.8453

0.8458

0.8524

0.8596

0.8664

EURCAD

DN

1.2943

1.3143

1.3258

1.3415

1.3501

1.3573

1.3773

1.3888

EURAUD

DN

1.3062

1.3190

1.3353

1.3464

1.3499

1.3645

1.3773

1.3936

*on the charts below, magenta bars/candles indicate key reversals from 20 day high/low and a range for the bar that is at least as large as 20 day ATR (weekly parameter is 13 and monthly parameter is 12)

*green bars/candles indicate the first day of the month

Euro / British Pound

Daily Bars

02-16-11crosses_body_eurgbp.png, Currency Crosses: Technical Outlook

Prepared by Jamie Saettele

As long as the EURGBP is below 8672, there is potential for a drop below 8066 and possibly a test of the downward sloping line drawn off of the June 2009 and June 2010 lows (maybe we’ll get there in June 2011-the line in June 2011 is at about 7730). Price is back under the 20 and 50 day averages thus price ideally stays under 8529 although a push through cannot be ruled out (above would complete a flat). Additional resistance is the 61.8% level at 8563 and 8672 does remain the key level.

Euro / Canadian Dollar

Daily Bars

02-16-11crosses_body_eurcad.png, Currency Crosses: Technical Outlook

Prepared by Jamie Saettele

“The EURCAD is likely to decline in the weeks and months ahead as per the impulsive decline from 14346 and subsequent advance, which reversed at the 61.8% retracement.” Continue to favor the downside against 13659 albeit cautiously as price has stalled at its 50 day average and the drop from 13776 is in just 3 waves. A move above 13659 opens up the door for a test of 14000. Levels of interest on the downside are former pivot support at 13089 and the 161.8% extension at 12958.

Euro / Australian Dollar

DailyBars

02-16-11crosses_body_euraud.png, Currency Crosses: Technical Outlook

Prepared by Jamie Saettele

The EURAUD drop into 12925 may have completed an ending diagonal pattern (with a throwover in wave v) from the May ‘flash crash’ high-this is bullish. The rally from 12925 has unfolded as an impulse (5 waves) and broken above the upper diagonal line but the advance could also complete a flat-this is neutral. Weakness from 13878 found support at the 61.8% retracement and 50 day average. I am bullish against the February low.

Euro / Japanese Yen

Daily Bars

02-16-11crosses_body_eurjpy.png, Currency Crosses: Technical Outlook

Prepared by Jamie Saettele

To review, the EURJPY rally from 10681 consists of 2 equal legs, which is common for corrective moves. Also, the 3 wave rally from 10538 bolsters the bearish pattern. The key level for bears is 11400. A move above there would give scope to a test of 11566. My confidence in the larger bearish bias is low at this point, especially since the bearish count involves a leading diagonal and not a clear impulse.

British Pound / Japanese Yen

Daily Bars

02-16-11crosses_body_gbpjpy.png, Currency Crosses: Technical Outlook

Prepared by Jamie Saettele

The GBPJPY has rallied to test the September high at 13503 and strong upside momentum gives scope to additional gains towards a Fibonacci extension at 13652 and perhaps the August high at 13776. Watch the upper channel line for resistance. Former resistance is now support at 13423 and 13324.

Canadian Dollar / Japanese Yen

DailyBars

02-16-11crosses_body_cadjpy.png, Currency Crosses: Technical Outlook

Prepared by Jamie Saettele

I wrote Friday “to look higher towards the 50% retracement of the decline from 9449 at 8644 (which is also the July high) and channel resistance.” The CADJPY has broken higher and there is no reason to fade the move yet (no divergence or clear resistance). Levels to watch are 8549 and the mentioned 8644. 8411 is support.

Australian Dollar / Japanese Yen

Daily Bars

02-16-11crosses_body_audjpy.png, Currency Crosses: Technical Outlook

Prepared by Jamie Saettele

The AUDJPY is trading at its highest since May. The slight new high satisfies minimum expectations for wave v of the diagonal from 7266. Still, focus remains on the trendline resistance closer to 85-86. The 2/10 low along with the 20 and 50 day averages serve as support just below 8300.

Jamie Saettele publishes Daily Technicals every weekday morning, COT analysis (published Monday), technical analysis of currency crosseson Monday, Wednesday, and Friday (Euro and Yen crosses), and intraday trading strategy as market action dictates at the DailyFX Forex Stream. He is the author of Sentiment in the Forex Market. Send requests to receive his reports via email to jsaettele@dailyfx.com.

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