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Currency Crosses: Technical Outlook

Currency Crosses: Technical Outlook

2011-02-11 23:29:00
Jamie Saettele, CMT, Sr. Technical Strategist
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Long Term Trends and Pivot Points (monthly data) (updated on first of the month)

TREND

S3

S2

S1

PL

PH

R1

R2

R3

EURJPY

UP

100.90

103.86

108.09

110.41

111.68

115.28

118.23

122.46

GBPJPY

UP

120.28

123.02

127.18

129.21

130.64

134.09

136.83

140.99

CADJPY

UP

77.37

79.38

80.66

82.30

83.04

83.95

85.96

87.24

AUDJPY

UP

78.32

79.64

80.72

81.92

82.16

83.12

84.44

85.53

EURGBP

DN

0.7945

0.8115

0.8332

0.8478

0.8526

0.8720

0.8889

0.9107

EURCAD

UP

1.2060

1.2418

1.3061

1.3276

1.3561

1.4061

1.4419

1.5062

EURAUD

UP

1.2198

1.2564

1.3146

1.3404

1.3619

1.4093

1.4459

1.5040

Medium Term Trends and Pivot Points (weekly data) (updated every week)

TREND

S3

S2

S1

PL

PH

R1

R2

R3

EURJPY

UP

109.52

110.37

111.73

112.33

112.83

113.93

114.79

116.14

GBPJPY

UP

129.48

130.52

132.16

132.89

133.50

134.83

135.87

137.51

CADJPY

UP

80.84

81.59

83.07

83.46

84.19

85.30

86.06

87.54

AUDJPY

UP

82.35

82.64

83.14

83.33

83.54

83.94

84.23

84.73

EURGBP

DN

0.8243

0.8315

0.8383

0.8453

0.8458

0.8524

0.8596

0.8664

EURCAD

DN

1.2943

1.3143

1.3258

1.3415

1.3501

1.3573

1.3773

1.3888

EURAUD

DN

1.3062

1.3190

1.3353

1.3464

1.3499

1.3645

1.3773

1.3936

*on the charts below, magenta bars/candles indicate key reversals from 20 day high/low and a range for the bar that is at least as large as 20 day ATR (weekly parameter is 13 and monthly parameter is 12)

*green bars/candles indicate the first day of the month

Euro / British Pound

Daily Bars

02-11-11crosses_body_eurgbp.png, Currency Crosses: Technical Outlook

Prepared by Jamie Saettele

As long as the EURGBP is below 8672, there is potential for a drop below 8066 and possibly a test of the downward sloping line drawn off of the June 2009 and June 2010 lows (maybe we’ll get there in June 2011-the line in June 2011 is at about 7730). The rally from 8388 reversed just ahead of the 50% retracement of the decline from 8672 and price is back under the 20 and 50 day averages thus price ideally stays under 8528. Additional resistance is the 61.8% level at 8563 and 8672 does remain the key level.

Euro / Canadian Dollar

Daily Bars

02-11-11crosses_body_eurcad.png, Currency Crosses: Technical Outlook

Prepared by Jamie Saettele

“The EURCAD is likely to decline in the weeks and months ahead as per the impulsive decline from 14346 and subsequent advance, which has already reached the 61.8% retracement. Friday’s sharp decline strongly suggests that 13776 will not be tested. A former pivot low at 13430 is now resistance.

Euro / Australian Dollar

DailyBars

02-11-11crosses_body_euraud.png, Currency Crosses: Technical Outlook

Prepared by Jamie Saettele

The EURAUD is at a crossroads. The drop into 12925 may have completed an ending diagonal pattern (with a throwover in wave v) from the May ‘flash crash’ high-this is bullish. The rally from 12925 has unfolded as an impulse (5 waves) and broken above the upper diagonal line but the advance could also complete a flat-this is neutral. Weakness from 13878 found support at the 61.8% retracement and 50 day average which is bullish but the other Euro crosses are bearish. The evidence is contradictory here thus I don’t have a directional opinion.

Euro / Japanese Yen

Daily Bars

02-11-11crosses_body_eurjpy.png, Currency Crosses: Technical Outlook

Prepared by Jamie Saettele

To review, the EURJPY rally from 10681 consists of 2 equal legs, which is common for corrective moves. Also, the 3 wave rally from 10538 bolsters the bearish pattern. The key level for bears is 11400. A move above there would put give scope to a test of 11566. My confidence in the larger bearish bias is low at this point, especially since the bearish count involves a leading diagonal and not a clear impulse. Trading above 11400 shifts focus to 11566 followed by the February 2010 low at 11964.

British Pound / Japanese Yen

Daily Bars

02-11-11crosses_body_gbpjpy.png, Currency Crosses: Technical Outlook

Prepared by Jamie Saettele

The GBPJPY has rallied to test the November high at 13420 and strong upside momentum gives scope to additional gains towards a Fibonacci extension at 13652 and perhaps the August high at 13776. Watch the upper channel line for resistance. The most recent pivot low is 13155, which can serve as risk for longs.

Canadian Dollar / Japanese Yen

DailyBars

02-11-11crosses_body_cadjpy.png, Currency Crosses: Technical Outlook

Prepared by Jamie Saettele

I wrote Wednesday that “the first day of the month is the low thus far, so a cautious bullish bias is reasonable. Medium term directional pivots are 8468 and 8120.” 8468 has nearly been exceeded so continue to look higher towards the 50% retracement of the decline from 9449 at 8644 (which is also the July high) and channel resistance. The most recent pivot low is 8234.

Australian Dollar / Japanese Yen

Daily Bars

02-11-11crosses_body_audjpy.png, Currency Crosses: Technical Outlook

Prepared by Jamie Saettele

The AUDJPY is trading at its December high. The slight new high satisfies minimum expectations for wave v of the diagonal from 7266. Still, focus remains on the trendline resistance closer to 85-86. A drop below 8095 is needed in order to indicate a reversal.

Jamie Saettele publishes Daily Technicals every weekday morning, COT analysis (published Monday), technical analysis of currency crosseson Monday, Wednesday, and Friday (Euro and Yen crosses), and intraday trading strategy as market action dictates at the DailyFX Forex Stream. He is the author of Sentiment in the Forex Market. Send requests to receive his reports via email to jsaettele@dailyfx.com.

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

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