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Currency Crosses: Technical Outlook

Currency Crosses: Technical Outlook

2011-02-02 23:29:00
Jamie Saettele, CMT, Sr. Technical Strategist
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Long Term Trends and Pivot Points (monthly data) (updated on first of the month)

TREND

S3

S2

S1

PL

PH

R1

R2

R3

EURJPY

UP

100.90

103.86

108.09

110.41

111.68

115.28

118.23

122.46

GBPJPY

UP

120.28

123.02

127.18

129.21

130.64

134.09

136.83

140.99

CADJPY

UP

77.37

79.38

80.66

82.30

83.04

83.95

85.96

87.24

AUDJPY

UP

78.32

79.64

80.72

81.92

82.16

83.12

84.44

85.53

EURGBP

DN

0.7945

0.8115

0.8332

0.8478

0.8526

0.8720

0.8889

0.9107

EURCAD

UP

1.2060

1.2418

1.3061

1.3276

1.3561

1.4061

1.4419

1.5062

EURAUD

UP

1.2198

1.2564

1.3146

1.3404

1.3619

1.4093

1.4459

1.5040

Medium Term Trends and Pivot Points (weekly data) (updated every week)

TREND

S3

S2

S1

PL

PH

R1

R2

R3

EURJPY

UP

108.33

109.92

110.83

112.08

112.75

113.34

114.92

115.84

GBPJPY

UP

125.77

127.64

128.93

130.51

131.08

132.09

133.95

135.25

CADJPY

DN

79.84

80.89

81.44

82.24

82.75

83.04

84.10

84.64

AUDJPY

DN

79.93

80.61

81.11

81.70

81.89

82.29

82.98

83.48

EURGBP

UP

0.8310

0.8401

0.8490

0.8580

0.8581

0.8670

0.8761

0.8851

EURCAD

UP

1.3295

1.3393

1.3508

1.3599

1.3615

1.3722

1.3821

1.3935

EURAUD

UP

1.3355

1.3497

1.3594

1.3713

1.3758

1.3832

1.3974

1.4071

*on the charts below, magenta bars/candles indicate key reversals from 20 day high/low and a range for the bar that is at least as large as 20 day ATR (weekly parameter is 13 and monthly parameter is 12)

*green bars/candles indicate the first day of the month

Euro / British Pound

Daily Bars

02-02-11crosses_body_eurgbp.png, Currency Crosses: Technical Outlook

Prepared by Jamie Saettele

I have been expecting “weakness / consolidation in a small 4th wave before the EURGBP makes a new high (above 8672)” in order to complete the flat correction from the December 1 low. However, price has closed (daily) below the Elliott channel thus the probability that a top is in place at 8672 is increased. Moreover, the drop from 8672 has the look of an impulse (5 waves). Expect resistance in the 8560-80 area.

Euro / Canadian Dollar

Daily Bars

02-02-11crosses_body_eurcad.png, Currency Crosses: Technical Outlook

Prepared by Jamie Saettele

The EURCAD reversed at the 61.8% retracement of the decline from 14346 on Monday. Price has spent several days outside of its steep channel and an RSI sell signal remains in place. Strengthening the bearish bias is the fact that this week’s high was on Monday and price has broken below its first day of the month low today (I use the beginning of the week and month as opening ranges). It is likely that the entire rally from 12776 is complete.

Euro / Australian Dollar

DailyBars

02-02-11crosses_body_euraud.png, Currency Crosses: Technical Outlook

Prepared by Jamie Saettele

I continue to favor a corrective decline prior to formation of a secondary low - “The drop into 12925 may have completed an ending diagonal pattern (with a throwover in wave v) from the May ‘flash crash’ high. The rally from 12925 has unfolded as an impulse (5 waves) and broken above the upper diagonal line.” Of course, with an impulse probably complete, we should expect a correction in the opposite direction. The support zone at this point is large, from 13292 (61.8%) to 13549 (former resistance and reinforced by 38.2% at 13516). I’ll zoom in when appropriate in order to pinpoint support.

Euro / Japanese Yen

Daily Bars

02-02-11crosses_body_eurjpy.png, Currency Crosses: Technical Outlook

Prepared by Jamie Saettele

Friday’s sharp reversal in the EURJPY occurred following a test of the 100% extension. That is, the rally from 10681 consists of 2 equal legs, which is common for corrective moves. Again, the 3 wave rally from 10538 bolsters the bearish pattern as does the RSI bearish signal (higher RSI and lower price peak). I like the short side from the current level (just below 11300). On a break below 11140, 11023 becomes potential support

British Pound / Japanese Yen

Daily Bars

02-02-11crosses_body_gbpjpy.png, Currency Crosses: Technical Outlook

Prepared by Jamie Saettele

The GBPJPY has traded in a range of basically 13250-12950 for the past several weeks. I am near term bearish as per the RSI bearish signal and current range environment (testing top of range now). Bigger picture, it is possible that the GBPJPY is building a large base but it would take a rally through the top of the base (13776) in order to alter the longer term trend.

Canadian Dollar / Japanese Yen

DailyBars

02-02-11crosses_body_cadjpy.png, Currency Crosses: Technical Outlook

Prepared by Jamie Saettele

After breaking below its resistance line that is extended from the October and December lows, the CADJPY has rallied to test the underside of its former support line. Price is holding below its 20 and 50 day averages and 8120 is now in focus. The pattern from the April 2010 high is not especially clear but the rally from 7840 did reverse at the 38.2% retracement; which is suggestive of a correction. I am cautiously bearish against 8355 (there are far better trades out there in my opinion).

Australian Dollar / Japanese Yen

Daily Bars

02-02-11crosses_body_audjpy.png, Currency Crosses: Technical Outlook

Prepared by Jamie Saettele

The AUDJPY has traded in a volatile slightly downward sloping range for the past month. The minor slide could be the beginning of a larger decline. Price reversed right at its upper diagonal line in December and has broken below the lower diagonal line in 2011, which is bearish. The negative 20-50 average cross is also bearish.

Jamie Saettele publishes Daily Technicals every weekday morning, COT analysis (published Monday), technical analysis of currency crosseson Monday, Wednesday, and Friday (Euro and Yen crosses), and intraday trading strategy as market action dictates at the DailyFX Forex Stream. He is the author of Sentiment in the Forex Market. Send requests to receive his reports via email to jsaettele@dailyfx.com.

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

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