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Currency Crosses: Technical Outlook 07/30

Currency Crosses: Technical Outlook 07/30

2010-07-30 15:58:00
Jamie Saettele, CMT, Sr. Technical Strategist
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Long Term Trends and Pivot Points (monthly data) (updated on first of the month)

TREND

S3

S2

S1

PL

PH

R1

R2

R3

EURJPY

DN

98.81

103.06

105.65

109.06

110.72

112.48

116.73

119.32

GBPJPY

DN

123.56

126.97

129.57

132.57

133.40

135.58

138.99

141.59

CADJPY

DN

73.65

78.31

80.71

84.24

86.50

87.77

92.43

94.83

AUDJPY

DN

64.49

69.08

71.67

75.25

77.25

78.84

83.42

86.01

EURGBP

DN

0.7604

0.7835

0.8011

0.8214

0.8270

0.8418

0.8649

0.8825

EURCAD

DN

1.2026

1.2237

1.2626

1.2749

1.2926

1.3226

1.3437

1.3826

EURAUD

DN

1.3320

1.3641

1.4097

1.4350

1.4485

1.4873

1.5194

1.5650

Medium Term Trends and Pivot Points (weekly data) (updated every week)

TREND

S3

S2

S1

PL

PH

R1

R2

R3

EURJPY

UP

107.47

108.74

110.81

111.67

112.48

114.15

115.42

117.50

GBPJPY

UP

127.95

129.38

132.12

132.91

134.20

136.29

137.72

140.46

CADJPY

UP

79.93

80.84

82.62

83.08

83.97

85.31

86.22

88.00

AUDJPY

UP

72.09

73.38

75.84

76.55

77.72

79.60

80.89

83.35

EURGBP

UP

0.8065

0.8191

0.8280

0.8387

0.8423

0.8494

0.8619

0.8708

EURCAD

UP

1.2765

1.3015

1.3190

1.3403

1.3478

1.3616

1.3866

1.4042

EURAUD

DN

1.3529

1.3930

1.4169

1.4489

1.4651

1.4808

1.5209

1.5448

Euro / British Pound

Daily Bars

Currency_Crosses_Technical_Outlook_07.30_body_100730_102233_CQG_IC_Screen.png, Currency Crosses: Technical Outlook 07/30

Prepared by Jamie Saettele

I maintain that the larger EURGBP trend is down towards 7600-7700 (October 2008 low and Fibonacci extension). The drop below the short term support line suggests that the larger downtrend may be ready to resume. 8420 is short term resistance. 8175 may provide short term support.

Euro / Canadian Dollar

Daily Bars

, Currency Crosses: Technical Outlook 07/30

Focus remains on the 100% extension of the initial bull leg, which is at 13975. 14100 is former support and now potential resistance as well (as is the 200 day SMA at 14280). Short term support extends to 13175 but price ideally stays above the support line.

Prepared by Jamie Saettele

Euro / Australian Dollar

Daily Bars

Currency_Crosses_Technical_Outlook_07.30_body_, Currency Crosses: Technical Outlook 07/30

Prepared by Jamie Saettele

Since the May low, the EURAUD has traded in a contracting range so it’s possible that a triangle is underway. It is also possible however that a bullish base (series of 1st and 2nd waves) is forming. With support at 14330 holding, I am looking higher.

Euro / Japanese Yen

240 Minute Bars

Currency_Crosses_Technical_Outlook_07.30_body_100730_102414_CQG_IC_Screen.png, Currency Crosses: Technical Outlook 07/30

Prepared by Jamie Saettele

The long term EURJPY trend is down and the rally from 10730 does count as corrective although there is potential for additional strength towards the 100% extension of 10730-11341, at 11625. The decline from the top (11477) is not yet in 5 waves and 11220 support has held. Despite this, I am cautiously bearish.

British Pound / Japanese Yen

Daily Bars

Currency_Crosses_Technical_Outlook_07.30_body_100730_102611_CQG_IC_Screen.png, Currency Crosses: Technical Outlook 07/30

Prepared by Jamie Saettele

I wrote last week that “20 day GBPJPY ATR is at its lowest level since January. Since the top above 251 in July 2007, ATR readings this low have coincided with important tops. A low ATR signals low volatility, which signals complacency. The GBPJPY is vulnerable at this level. Favor the downside against 13600 in anticipation of a drop below 12670.” I still maintain that the GBPJPY is vulnerable over the longer term but the break above 13600 exposes channel resistance as well as the 200 day SMA (near 14090).

Canadian Dollar / Japanese Yen

Daily Bars

Currency_Crosses_Technical_Outlook_07.30_body_100730_102647_CQG_IC_Screen.png, Currency Crosses: Technical Outlook 07/30

Prepared by Jamie Saettele

The multi week CADJPY downside objective remains 7850 (100% extension and 2009 low). A move above 8650 cannot be ruled out. In such an event, the 200 day SMA could provide resistance near 8700.

Australian Dollar / Japanese Yen

Daily Bars

Currency_Crosses_Technical_Outlook_07.30_body_100730_102720_CQG_IC_Screen.png, Currency Crosses: Technical Outlook 07/30

Prepared by Jamie Saettele

A break below the May low is expected eventually, with weakness likely extending to 6600 (100% extension). The 3 wave rally from 7190 leaves the AUDJPY vulnerable. Still, a complex correction could see 8090 slightly exceeded. The 100% extension at 8180 would be resistance.

Jamie Saettele publishes Daily Technicals every weekday morning, COT analysis (published Monday), technical analysis of currency crosseson Wednesday, and Friday (Euro and Yen crosses), and intraday trading strategy as market action dictates at the DailyFX Forum. He is the author of Sentiment in the Forex Market. Follow his intraday market commentary and trades at DailyFX Forex Stream. Send requests to receive his reports via email to jsaettele@dailyfx.com.

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

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