Currency Crosses: Technical Outlook 07-21
I maintain that the larger EURGBP trend is down towards 7600-7700 (October 2008 low and Fibonacci extension). The drop below the short term support line suggests that the larger downtrend may be ready to resume. 8480 is short term resistance. 8315 is the next level of interest on the downside.
Euro / Canadian Dollar
Focus remains on the 100% extension of the initial bull leg, which is at 12975. 14100 is former support and now potential resistance (as is the 200 day SMA at 14230). Short term support extends to 13175 and price should remains above 12950.
Euro / Australian Dollar
A corrective pattern of sorts may be underway from the May low as either a flat or triangle. Strength above 15020 would set sights on 15390 (100% extension of 13958-15021). A drop below 14325 could complete wave D of a triangle.
Euro / Japanese Yen
The EURJPY rally from 10730 consists of overlapping waves and is therefore probably corrective. I wrote last week that “the advance channels in a corrective manner and price has stalled ahead of a June high of 11345. Coming beneath channel support would signal the potential for additional weakness.” The pair has come beneath its channel and tested initial support at 11090. The next short term support is 10915. A long term objective remains at 9300, which is the 100% extension (in % terms) of the 17000-11360 decline.
British Pound / Japanese Yen
20 day GBPJPY ATR is at its lowest level since January. Since the top above 251 in July 2007, ATR readings this low have coincided with important tops. A low ATR signals low volatility, which signals complacency. The GBPJPY is vulnerable at this level. Favor the downside against 13600 in anticipation of a drop below 12670.
Canadian Dollar / Japanese Yen
The multi week CADJPY downside objective remains 7850 (100% extension and 2009 low). Another top may be in place today although strength above 8425 would expose 8480.
Australian Dollar / Japanese Yen
A break below the May low is expected eventually, with weakness likely extending to 6600 (100% extension). The 3 wave rally from 7190 leaves the AUDJPY vulnerable. The high last week may serve as the top of a right shoulder within a head and shoulders continuation pattern. Look lower.
Jamie Saettele publishes Daily Technicals every weekday morning, COT analysis (published Friday evenings), technical analysis of currency crosses on Monday, Wednesday, and Friday (Euro and Yen crosses), and intraday trading strategy as market action dictates at the DailyFX Forum. He is the author of Sentiment in the Forex Market. Follow his intraday market commentary and trades at DailyFX Forex Stream. Send requests to receive his reports via email to firstname.lastname@example.org.
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