Currency Crosses: Technical Outlook 07-09
The larger EURGBP trend is down towards 7600-7700 (October 2008 low and Fibonacci extension). The rally from 8066 is best counted as a 3 wave advance – potentially wave 4 within the decline from 9153. Look for intraday weakness since price is testing parallel channel resistance.
Euro / Canadian Dollar
A larger 4th wave in the EURCAD is probably underway as either a triangle or flat. I favor the triangle at this point because the rally nearly reached the former 4th wave extreme (13480). A potential for a triangle offers range opportunities over the next several weeks. 12770 is support.
Euro / Australian Dollar
The EURAUD pattern is similar to that of the EURCAD. A corrective pattern of sorts may be underway from the May low as either a flat or triangle. Short term support is 14330/75. There are range opportunities.
Euro / Japanese Yen
The EURJPY rally from 10730 is in 3 waves at this point and the price rolled over just shy of where the 2 bull legs would be equal. Equality among waves is characteristic of a correction so there is no evidence at this point to suggest that a major low is in place.
British Pound / Japanese Yen
I continue to favor the triangle interpretation. “The GBPJPY sideways trading over the last month is probably a B wave triangle.” Waves a through d are probably complete and wave e is underway towards support (13185-13225). Once wave e is complete, expectations will be for a terminal thrust in wave C that ends above 13650.
Canadian Dollar / Japanese Yen
The CADJPY has reached the 50% retracement of the decline from 9007. Additional strength would test 8670-8720 (61.8% retracement and the 200 day SMA), which should prove a difficult level for bulls to overcome. The multi week objective remains 7850 (100% extension and 2009 low).
Australian Dollar / Japanese Yen
A break below the May low is expected eventually, with weakness likely extending to 6600 (100% extension). The AUDJPY has reached the 61.8% retracement of the decline from 8090. This level is reinforced by the 20 day SMA and former congestion. The pair is vulnerable from here.
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