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Currency Crosses: Technical Outlook 07-07

Currency Crosses: Technical Outlook 07-07

2010-07-07 20:05:00
Jamie Saettele, CMT, Sr. Technical Strategist


Euro / British Pound


The larger EURGBP trend is down towards 7600-7700 (October 2008 low and Fibonacci extension). The rally from 8066 is best counted as a 3 wave advance consisting of 2 equal legs. I am cautiously bearish from here although the picture is far from clear. 8400/20 would be the next level on the upside if strength persists.

Euro / Canadian Dollar


A sharp move clarifies a specific market’s wave structure by indicating its 3rd or C wave position. In the case of the EURCAD, the rally from 12515 is most likely a 3rd wave (and from 12695 a 3rd of a 3rd). In Friday’s update, I wrote that we should “expect price to slide lower towards 13200…a drop to there would present a buying opportunity.” Expectations are for a 4th wave low to form this week. 13450-13200 is support.

Euro / Australian Dollar


The short term EURAUD pattern is similar to that of the EURCAD. A 4th wave correction has taken the form of an expanded flat and a low is expected to form this week. Support should be strong from 14500/75. Price needs to stay above 14330 in order for this interpretation to remain valid.

Euro / Japanese Yen


The EURJPY rally from 10730 is in 5 waves and probably composes the first wave (wave A) of a 3 wave correction. A B wave decline may be complete. Additional weakness would test 10865-10910 before a rally in wave C towards 11300.

British Pound / Japanese Yen


The GBPJPY sideways trading over the last month is probably a B wave triangle. Waves a through c are visible and wave d is underway now towards 13500 (wave e would then result in a setback). Bottom line – the triangle should continue into next week before price thrusts higher into a top near 14000.

Canadian Dollar / Japanese Yen


The CADJPY has traded below 8240 and an objective remains 7850 (100% extension and 2009 low). Near term resistance is from 8480 to 8660 with 8520 probably serving as the most formidable area.

Australian Dollar / Japanese Yen


A break below the May low is expected, with weakness likely extending to 6600 (100% extension). I wrote Friday that “it is possible (again…like the CADJPY) that 5 waves down from 8090 are nearing completion (or even complete). With this in mind, there will be better levels to initiate short positions.” The AUDJPY has rallied and resistance is at 7600 and 7700.

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