Currency Crosses: Technical Outlook 05-26
The EURGBP may be on the verge of breaking below its June 2009 low and on towards 8000. The latest decline, from 8778, is an impulse (5 waves). This indicates that the larger trend has changed from sideways to down. A corrective setback is expected over the next several days before additional weakness. 8600 is resistance.
Euro / Canadian Dollar
As mentioned last week “the exceptional EURCAD rally probably indicates that an important low is in place. Such a strong move is usually followed by consolidation / pullback. Each Fibonacci level intersects with congestion – look for support near these levels.” The correction has made it to the 61.8% retracement so a low is expected to form soon.
Euro / Australian Dollar
The EURAUD is in the exact same position as the EURCAD. The corrective channeling method pinpointed the low just ahead of the 61.8% retracement. Favor the upside from here.
Euro / Japanese Yen
Yesterday’s reversal indicated the potential for a larger recovery back to 115. While this still may happen, today’s weakness requires a look at the downside potential. Thus far, the decline from the 2009 high is in 2 equal legs. Additional weakness would target the 161.8% extension, near 100. A move above 11200 is needed in order to proclaim a change in trend.
British Pound / Japanese Yen
Canadian Dollar / Japanese Yen
The CADJPY decline from 9258 is in 5 waves and the following retracement, although shallow, did reach the terminus of the former 4th wave. This qualifies as sufficient. Barring a move above 8554 (above exposes 8630 and 8800), favor the downside. 7990 is the next level of interest on the downside.
Australian Dollar / Japanese Yen
Favor the downside against 7600. 6830 (161.8% extension) is the downside objective. 7440 is potential short term resistance. A move above 7600 would shift focus to the 7800.
Jamie Saettele publishes Daily Technicals every weekday morning, COT analysis (published Friday evenings), technical analysis of currency crosses on Monday, Wednesday, and Friday (Euro and Yen crosses), and intraday trading strategy as market action dictates at the DailyFX Forum. He is the author of Sentiment in the Forex Market. Follow his intraday market commentary and trades at DailyFX Forex Stream. Send requests to receive his reports via email to email@example.com.
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