Currency Crosses: Technical Outlook 05-21
Last update, I wrote that “the rally from the low (8427) is not an impulse, but neither is the decline. A triangle, flat or some complex correction is underway. Expectations are for higher prices.” The EURGBP found resistance at the 161.8% extension of the 8444-8622 advance. If a triangle is unfolding, then price will head lower before finding support ahead of 8491. In summary, the EURGBP is in a range defined by 8440 and 8810.
Euro / Canadian Dollar
The exceptional EURCAD rally probably indicates that an important low is in place. Such a strong move is usually followed by consolidation / pullback. Each Fibonacci level intersects with congestion – look for support near these levels.
Euro / Australian Dollar
The EURAUD is in the exact same position as the EURCAD. Fibonacci retracements intersect with congestion levels, so look for support near these levels. Keep in mind the extreme oversold nature of the pair (this is the 16th consecutive down month for the EURAUD).
Euro / Japanese Yen
No change: “The decline is satisfactory as the EURJPY come within just pips of reaching the previous low. Although far from confident, I cautiously favor the upside towards initial resistance at 11550. One reason to favor near term strength is the structure of the decline from 12230 – which is in 5 waves. A 3 wave setback typically ensues.” If 11163 holds, then 11663 is an objective (100% extension).
British Pound / Japanese Yen
Last update, I wrote that “a drop to a new low should complete 5 waves from 14600. Expectations would then be for a recovery/consolidation…” I favor the recovery scenario, especially if the GBPJPY is able to break above its channel. 13290 is initial resistance, followed by 13500 then 13740.
Canadian Dollar / Japanese Yen
“Very big picture, the rally from the 1995 low is in 3 waves – this is bearish (3 waves move against the trend) and suggests that we should look to short large rallies. The nearly 3000 pip rally from the 2009 low qualifies. What’s more, a former resistance line pinpointed the top of the rally in April.” Near term, resistance is at 8590-8620 – which is the 38.2% of the decline from 9060-8300 and former support (now probable support). The downside is favored against 9060. 7850 is the next potential support level on the daily.
Australian Dollar / Japanese Yen
The rally from the 2008 low (5500) reversed right at the 61.8% retracement of the prior decline (just as the Dow did). 20 day rate of change is now negative (finding support after declining to -10%) after sporting divergence for months.” The downside is favored against 8450 and the next objective is 6830, then 6500. Near term resistance is 7605, 7680, and 7820.
Jamie Saettele publishes Daily Technicals every weekday morning, COT analysis (published Friday evenings), technical analysis of currency crosses on Monday, Wednesday, and Friday (Euro and Yen crosses), and intraday trading strategy as market action dictates at the DailyFX Forum. He is the author of Sentiment in the Forex Market. Follow his intraday market commentary and trades at DailyFX Forex Stream. Send requests to receive his reports via email to email@example.com.
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