Currency Crosses: Technical Outlook 05-19
There is no change for the call for additional consolidation. “The rally from the low (8427) is not an impulse, but neither is the decline. A triangle, flat or some complex correction is underway. Expectations are for higher prices.” 8670 is potential resistance (100% extension).
Euro / Canadian Dollar
The EURCAD has bounced from a Fibonacci extension at 12770. In recent commentary, I’ve focused on the “12 rate of change…which is at the lower end of its historical range…the extreme rate of change reading warns of a pullback. In summary, look for a low to form over the next few weeks.” Today’s strong rally indicates that the EURCAD has probably made that low. Short term support is from 12870-12790. Initial resistance is 13230.
Euro / Australian Dollar
“Like the EURCAD, 12 month rate of change is at the lower end of its historical range. In fact, there have only been 2 instances when the RoC was lower – spring/summer 1981 and late 1988/early 1989. Both instances led to the formation of major lows (this is the 16th consecutive down month for the EURAUD).” This week’s surge suggests that a low is in place. 14520-14430 is short term support. 14925 is resistance.
Euro / Japanese Yen
The decline is satisfactory as the EURJPY come within just pips of reaching the previous low. Although far from confident, I cautiously favor the upside towards initial resistance at 11550. One reason to favor near term strength is the structure of the decline from 12230 – which is in 5 waves. A 3 wave setback typically ensues.
British Pound / Japanese Yen
Last update, I wrote that “I expect a decline from current levels to lead to a test of the low at 13000. In EW parlance, a drop to a new low should complete 5 waves from 14600. Expectations would then be for a recovery/consolidation that lasts for several months. This analysis fits with my expectations for the EURJPY.” After dropping below 13000, the GBPJPY has recovered slightly. Initial resistance is 13490.
Canadian Dollar / Japanese Yen
“Very big picture, the rally from the 1995 low is in 3 waves – this is bearish (3 waves move against the trend) and suggests that we should look to short large rallies. The nearly 3000 pip rally from the 2009 low qualifies. What’s more, a former resistance line pinpointed the top of the rally in April.” A support line is holding on a weekly closing basis (but is expected to give way). 8870 is short term resistance.
Australian Dollar / Japanese Yen
The rally from the 2008 low (5500) reversed right at the 61.8% retracement of the prior decline (just as the Dow did). 20 day rate of change is now negative (finding support after declining to -10%) after sporting divergence for months. Now that February low has been tested, expect a pullback to wash out the weak shorts. Resistance is 7910 and 8000.
Jamie Saettele publishes Daily Technicals every weekday morning, COT analysis (published Friday evenings), technical analysis of currency crosses on Monday, Wednesday, and Friday (Euro and Yen crosses), and intraday trading strategy as market action dictates at the DailyFX Forum. He is the author of Sentiment in the Forex Market. Follow his intraday market commentary and trades at DailyFX Forex Stream. Send requests to receive his reports via email to email@example.com.
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