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Currency Crosses: Technical Outlook 05-14

Currency Crosses: Technical Outlook 05-14

2010-05-14 17:50:00
Jamie Saettele, CMT, Sr. Technical Strategist

 Euro / British Pound



I wrote last week that “the exceptional rally today offers an opportunity to go with the larger trend.”  The entire rally has been almost entirely retraced.  The rally from the low (8427) is not an impulse, but neither is the decline.  A triangle, flat or some complex correction is underway.  Expectations are for higher prices then.  8650 is initial resistance.

The EURCAD is closing in on a Fibonacci extension at 12770 and the 1997 low at 12450.  Bigger picture, 12 rate of change is at the lower end of its historical range and the EURCAD has broken below a MAJOR head and shoulders neckline.  The extreme rate of change reading warns of a pullback.  In summary, look for a low to form over the next few weeks
The EURAUD finds itself closing in on the 1997 low of 14010.  A doji on the weekly (last week’s candle) warns that a low may be forming.  Like the EURCAD, 12 month rate of change is at the lower end of its historical range.  In fact, there have only been 2 instances when the RoC was lower – spring/summer 1981 and late 1988/early 1989.  Both instances led to the formation of major lows (this is the 16th consecutive down month for the EURAUD).  
I wrote Wednesday that “I do expect a test of last week’s low.  How soon is difficult to assess.  In 1998, the Asian crisis resulted in a test of the spike low 3 weeks after the initial plunge (then additional consolidation followed by a resumption of weakness).  In 2008, the low was tested the next week.  Using history as a guide, I expect a test of the low before several months of consolidation.”  The EURJPY is on the verge of testing the low (11067).  There is an objective at 10994 (161.8% extension).  Favor the downside against 11620.      
British Pound / Japanese Yen
Last update, I wrote that “I expect a decline from current levels to lead to a test of the low at 13000.  In EW parlance, a drop to a new low should complete 5 waves from 14600.  Expectations would then be for a recovery/consolidation that lasts for several months.  This analysis fits with my expectations for the EURJPY.”  There is no change.  
Canadian Dollar / Japanese Yen
 No change: “Very big picture, the rally from the 1995 low is in 3 waves – this is bearish (3 waves move against the trend) and suggests that we should look to short large rallies.  The nearly 3000 pip rally from the 2009 low qualifies.  What’s more, a former resistance line pinpointed the top of the rally earlier this month.  As is the case with the other Yen crosses, I favor the downside and a test of last week’s low.”  8970 is short term resistance.
Australian Dollar / Japanese Yen
“The AUDJPY picture is bearish also.  The rally from the 2008 low (5500) reversed right at the 61.8% retracement of the prior decline (just as the Dow did).  20 day rate of change is now negative after sporting divergence for months.  Near term expectations are for a test of last week’s low before additional consolidation.”  Price should stay below 8450 on its way to breaking below 7700.  8220 is resistance.
Jamie Saettele publishes Daily Technicals every weekday morning, COT analysis (published Friday evenings), technical analysis of currency crosses on Monday, Wednesday, and Friday (Euro and Yen crosses), and intraday trading strategy as market action dictates at the DailyFX Forum.  He is the author of Sentiment in the Forex Market.  Follow his intraday market commentary and trades at DailyFX Forex Stream.   Send requests to receive his reports via email to jsaettele@dailyfx.com

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