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Currency Crosses: Technical Outlook 05-07

Currency Crosses: Technical Outlook 05-07

2010-05-07 17:23:00
Jamie Saettele, CMT, Sr. Technical Strategist

Euro / British Pound


Longer term, I view the longer term EURGBP trend as down.  Thus, the exceptional rally today offers an opportunity to go with the larger trend.  Additional strength would target 8870-8915.

The EURCAD continues to chop lower and there is potential support at a Fibonacci extension at 12770 (you may also want to keep an eye on 13000).  12 month momentum is at the lower end of its historical range but not at an all-time low (which was reached in 1997).  From a trading perspective, there would be an opportunity to short for the mentioned targets on rallies to 13600 and 13900.  

The EURAUD finds itself closing in on the 1997 low of 14010.  Staying below 14475 keeps the pair headed lower towards that level.  Above there would suggest that a larger bullish base is forming.    

The EURNZD broke below the February 2008 low at 18181 and the next level of interest on the downside is the 2007 low at 17025.  There is resistance at 18125 and 18380.  Look to align with the larger trend near there for a drop below 17500.

The EURJPY collapse led to the lowest print since 2001.  The range this week is the largest since October 2008.  The EURJPY traded in a 1500 pip range for several months following that bout of volatility.  Something similar may happen here.  Look to trade a large range.          

British Pound / Japanese Yen
The GBPJPY has registered a new 2010 low but remains well above its 2008 low.  In essence, the pair is in the center of a large range (albeit currently sporting downside momentum).  There is short term support from a downward sloping trendline.  13940 is resistance.

Canadian Dollar / Japanese Yen
I wrote last update that “there is the specter of a double top at 9430.  With the 20 day SMA rolling over, traders may want to think downside…especially if the channel starts to fail.”  The channel gave way, as did a longer term support line (although just intraweek at this point).  8995 is resistance.    

Australian Dollar / Japanese Yen
I wrote last update that “the rally from 8391 could have completed wave 5 within a 5 wave rally from 7618.  Price remains confined to a short term channel but it is worth mentioning that an expanding triangle has been underway since October.  When viewed in the context of Monday’s shooting star pattern and today’s reversal, the AUDJPY looks vulnerable to a reversal.”  The AUDJPY has broken below important channel supports and the next level of interest is the February low at 7620.  8390 is resistance.    

New Zealand Dollar / Japanese Yen
Last update, I wrote that “understand that false breaks are quite common with triangles, so keep risk manageable (always do that anyway).”  A false breakout can be used as a signal in the opposite direction quite often with success.  That presents a plan here.  6695 is resistance.
Jamie Saettele publishes Daily Technicals every weekday morning, COT analysis (published Friday evenings), technical analysis of currency crosses on Monday, Wednesday, and Friday (Euro and Yen crosses), and intraday trading strategy as market action dictates at the DailyFX Forum.  He is the author of Sentiment in the Forex Market.  Follow his intraday market commentary and trades at DailyFX Forex Stream.   Send requests to receive his reports via email to jsaettele@dailyfx.com


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