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Currency Crosses: Technical Outlook 03-31

Currency Crosses: Technical Outlook 03-31

2010-03-31 21:55:00
Jamie Saettele, CMT, Sr. Technical Strategist


It looks as though wave E of a triangle that has been underway since December 2008 (last day of that month) is underway.  EURGBP weakness should extend to former resistance (which is now likely support) at 8850 or 8750 before finding a low.      
For the first time in months, it may be time to attempt longs with the EURCAD (and EURO / commodity crosses in general).  An inverse head and shoulders pattern is visible over the past 7 or so trading days.  A rally above 13850 would confirm the pattern and focus would then shift to 14100.
One should not ignore the warning signs of a pending reversal.  Those signs include oversold and divergent daily RSI and what may be a completed diagonal from 15331.  Weekly RSI is at its lowest level since 1997 (see vertical line) and today’s candle is a bullish engulfing pattern.    
Divergence with RSI on the weekly warns of a reversal as does price pressing against its channel resistance line.  Similar to the EURCAD, there is a potential inverse head and shoulders that is visible on 60 and 240 minute charts.  
The EURJPY has surged higher but bulls may experience headwinds as the pair approaches 12700/50.  This zone has served as support on numerous occasions (and may now be resistance).  Intraday studies are overbought and divergent, which warns of at least a pullback.  12550 is initial support with a deeper setback finding 12500 and then 12415.  (There is the chance of an outright reversal with 2 equal legs up from 11963).
British Pound / Japanese Yen
The GBPJPY decline from 16315 could be complete as a complex correction.  A rally above trendline resistance would make this count more probable.  Near term studies are extremely overbought and divergent, so at least a setback is expected.  14060 is initial support followed by 13950.  
Canadian Dollar / Japanese Yen
The CADJPY is at its highest level since October 2008 and the next level of resistance is not until the March 2008 low at 9566.  Near term support is at 9110.  Price should stay above 8970.   
Australian Dollar / Japanese Yen
The AUDJPY has continued higher and is just below its January high of 8625.  A breakout looks imminent but not before a setback near term.  Near term support is 8470 and price should remain above 8323.
New Zealand Dollar / Japanese Yen
The NZDJPY may be tracing out a large triangle from the October 2009 high.  6700/50 is potential resistance.  Near term support is at 6490.  I do not see any opportunities here at this point.  It is best to let the triangle play out before taking action.  
Jamie Saettele publishes Daily Technicals every weekday morning, COT analysis (published Friday evenings), technical analysis of currency crosses on Monday, Wednesday, and Friday (Euro and Yen crosses), and intraday trading strategy as market action dictates at the DailyFX Forum.  He is the author of Sentiment in the Forex Market.  Follow his intraday market commentary and trades at DailyFX Forex Stream.   Send requests to receive his reports via email to jsaettele@dailyfx.com.

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