Currency Crosses: Technical Outlook 03-24
It looks as though the EURGBP has completed wave D of a triangle that has been underway since December 2008 (last day of that month). If wave E is underway, then weakness should extend to former resistance (which is now likely support) at 8850 or 8750 before finding a low.
Euro / Canadian Dollar
“The EURCAD remains well within its bearish channel. Until a break of a pivot high, it is dangerous (if not foolish) to go long. The bullish pivot is 14113. The next significant price level on the downside is not until the 2007 low at 13284.” Former support at 13900 is potential resistance now.
Euro / Australian Dollar
Not until a move above 15064 would one be able to say that the EURAUD has reversed. Still, one should not completely ignore the warning signs of a pending reversal. Those signs include oversold and divergent daily RSI and what may be a completed diagonal from 15331. Still, the next level of chart support is not until the 1997 low at 14025 (weekly RSI is at its lowest level since 1997).
Euro / New Zealand Dollar
The EURNZD pair has been basically in a range since mid January and only a move above 19881 would clear the top of the range (and trendline) and indicate a reversal. The next major downside level is 18181 (2008 low).
Euro / Japanese Yen
I wrote last update that “with only 3 waves down to this point and a sizeable bounce from the low, one must entertain a corrective count from the high. Initial resistance is 12263. A move above 12320 would create overlap and cloud the bearish pattern.” The rally from the low consists of 2 equal legs and 12320 is not far from current price. If the larger trend is down in an impulsive fashion, then price needs to turn lower from here. A move above 12320 targets 12380-12400. I will say that my confidence in the Yen counts is low given what appears to be changing market dynamics.
British Pound / Japanese Yen
I wrote last update that “the decline appears impulsive...13680-13750 is a resistance zone. A rally into that zone presents an opportunity to short against the high.” The GBPJPY has reached the top of the zone. Additional resistance would be 13815 and 13850.
Canadian Dollar / Japanese Yen
The CADJPY is pressing against its double top of 9065. To this point, weakness has been met with fresh highs and confidence in the downside is low. Exceeding 9065 and reaching a fresh 2010 high would shift focus to 9566. 8960 is potential short term support.
Australian Dollar / Japanese Yen
The AUDJPY has also continued higher although it remains further from its January high of 8625. The 8484 level that I have discussed in recent weeks may come into play. This is where the 2 legs from 7617 would be equal. 8320 is potential short term support.
New Zealand Dollar / Japanese Yen
The NZDJPY looks like it wants to continue higher. 6541 is the next level to keep an eye on. This is former support as well as the 61.8% retracement. Watch the former support line for resistance as well. 6430 is potential short term support.
Jamie Saettele publishes Daily Technicals every weekday morning, COT analysis (published Friday evenings), technical analysis of currency crosses on Monday, Wednesday, and Friday (Euro and Yen crosses), and intraday trading strategy as market action dictates at the DailyFX Forum. He is the author of Sentiment in the Forex Market. Follow his intraday market commentary and trades at DailyFX Forex Stream. Send requests to receive his reports via email to firstname.lastname@example.org.
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