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Currency Crosses: Technical Outlook

Currency Crosses: Technical Outlook

2010-03-05 19:29:00
Jamie Saettele, CMT, Sr. Technical Strategist



 Euro / British Pound


From Wednesday; “the EURGBP rally is probably just (most of) wave D of a triangle that has been underway since December 2008.  Expect consolidation near term with short term support at 8920-75 before additional strength targets 9244.”  Consolidation/pullback is underway in a 4th wave.  Support should be strong down to 8950.  After finding bottom, the EURGBP is expected to make a new high (above 9153).      
The EURCAD remains well within its bearish channel.  I mentioned Wednesday that “a key reversal was made” and that “this is a strong reversal warning when combined with RSI divergence at the low.  A rally above 14446 would signal a reversal.”  The EURCAD then consolidated before plunging to a new low.  The pair is attempting another key reversal today and RSI divergence remains.  Until a break of a pivot high, it is dangerous (if not foolish) to short.  The bullish pivot is now lowered to 14155.  The next significant price level on the downside is not until the 2007 low at 13284.
The EURAUD continues to slip and price is currently testing a downward sloping support line (drawn off of the 6/11/09, 10/19/09 lows).  The line has crossed through 5 days of price action in February and March, which denotes the important of the line.  A move above 15331 would signal a reversal.
The EURNZD exceeded channel resistance this week but is back below now.  Rallying above 20077 would confirm a short term double bottom just above 19257.
The EURJPY has held its February low and the break above 12193 exposes 12528.  Although far from clear, the decline from 13853 can be counted as a 5 wave decline (first wave is a truncation).  This would portend a move back to at least 12528 and possibly 12745. 
British Pound / Japanese Yen
The GBPJPY has rallied from trendline support and is approaching the 2/5 low of 13822.  Trendline resistance is at 13990 on Monday and decreases about 30 pips per day.
Canadian Dollar / Japanese Yen
This is the count that I’ve been following for weeks but it is in jeopardy of invalidation now.  I have been viewing the “decline from 8850 as wave i of the next 5 wave decline.”  8850 is clearly at risk now and a move above would shift focus to 8937.  The bigger picture bearish outcome remains possible as long as price is below 9065.
Australian Dollar / Japanese Yen
Same deal as CADJPY:  I have been viewing the “decline from 8284 as wave i of the next 5 wave decline.”  8284 is clearly at risk now and a move above would shift focus to 8350-8440.  The bigger picture bearish outcome remains possible as long as price is below 8625.
New Zealand Dollar / Japanese Yen
The NZJPY is in the same position as the AUDJPY.  I have been viewing the “decline from 6456 as wave i of the next 5 wave decline.”  6332 is potential resistance along with 6371.  Rallying through 6456 would shift focus to 6500-40 then 6650.
 Jamie Saettele publishes Daily Technicals every weekday morning, COT analysis (published Friday evenings), technical analysis of currency crosses on Monday, Wednesday, and Friday (Euro and Yen crosses), and intraday trading strategy as market action dictates at the DailyFX Forum.  He is the author of Sentiment in the Forex Market.  Follow his intraday market commentary and trades at DailyFX Forex Stream.   Send requests to receive his reports via email to jsaettele@dailyfx.com.

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