Talking Points:
- AUD/USD Reacts to FOMC Minutes
- Key Support Found at the 200 MVA at .7552
- Sentiment Figures Remain Negative; IG Client Sentiment Totaling -1.37
The AUD/USD is rebounding from fresh daily lows, as US Dollar pairs are now processing the release of the FOMC meeting minutes from March 15th. This event has been marked as a high importance release on the economic calendar, with traders searching for clues inside of last month’s minutes to help determine potential shifts in policy from the FED.
Technically the AUD/USD remains in a long term uptrend, with the pair remaining supported by its 200 day MVA (simple moving average) at .7552. If this uptrend is set to continue, traders will look for the pair to next breakout above its short term 10 day EMA (exponential moving average). This line is found at .7614, and a breakout above this EMA would suggest a bullish shift in the markets short term trend. If the AUD/USD fails to breakout higher in the short term, traders may watch for a bearish shift in the market below the previously mentioned 200 day MVA. A breakout below this line should be seen as significant. In this bearish scenario, traders may begin to target the standing March 2017 low found at .7505.
AUD/USD, Daily Chart with Averages
Current sentiment totals for the AUD/USD remain negative, with IG Client Sentiment currently reading at -1.37. This value has increased in extremity from early readings in the session, and now 58% of traders are short the AUD/USD. In the event that the currency pair remains supported and prices begin to rebound, traders may look for this total to reach a negative extreme of -2.0 or greater. Alternatively in the event of a short term bearish reversal traders may look for sentiment figures to neutralize. If price action breaks below the previously mentioned 200 day MVA, traders may confirm the move by looking for IG Client Sentiment to flip to a net positive total.
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--- Written by Walker, Analyst for DailyFX.com
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