News & Analysis at your fingertips.

We use a range of cookies to give you the best possible browsing experience. By continuing to use this website, you agree to our use of cookies.
You can learn more about our cookie policy here, or by following the link at the bottom of any page on our site. See our updated Privacy Policy here.

0

Notifications

Notifications below are based on filters which can be adjusted via Economic and Webinar Calendar pages.

Live Webinar

Live Webinar Events

0

Economic Calendar

Economic Calendar Events

0
Free Trading Guides
Subscribe
Please try again
EUR/USD
Mixed
Oil - US Crude
Mixed
Wall Street
Mixed
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
Gold
Bullish
GBP/USD
Mixed
USD/JPY
Bullish
More View more
Real Time News
  • RT @KyleR_IG: Restrictions to be eased in Victoria as the state records three new COVID-19 cases https://t.co/i7ED0r6zuP
  • Commodities Update: As of 02:00, these are your best and worst performers based on the London trading schedule: Oil - US Crude: 0.88% Silver: -0.04% Gold: -0.20% View the performance of all markets via https://www.dailyfx.com/forex-rates#commodities https://t.co/JOgCXf4qhk
  • The continuity seen across these volatility cycles is a good thing. Historical precedence offer a blueprint for identifying conditions supportive for a vol-event to occur, and how they may unfold. Deepen your knowledge of historical volatility here: https://t.co/vg7w10la3j https://t.co/AeBDanqM4V
  • Forex Update: As of 02:00, these are your best and worst performers based on the London trading schedule: 🇳🇿NZD: 0.19% 🇦🇺AUD: 0.06% 🇨🇦CAD: 0.04% 🇬🇧GBP: -0.04% 🇪🇺EUR: -0.05% 🇨🇭CHF: -0.07% View the performance of all markets via https://www.dailyfx.com/forex-rates#currencies https://t.co/LIX3ToP9Bc
  • IG Client Sentiment Update: Our data shows the vast majority of traders in USD/CHF are long at 75.86%, while traders in France 40 are at opposite extremes with 82.70%. See the summary chart below and full details and charts on DailyFX: https://www.dailyfx.com/sentiment https://t.co/fvWYlP8HEP
  • Dow Jones Retreats Ahead of FOMC, Nikkei 225 and ASX 200 Open Lower https://www.dailyfx.com/forex/market_alert/2021/06/16/Dow-Jones-Retreats-Ahead-of-FOMC-Nikkei-225-and-ASX-200-Open-Lower.html https://t.co/2sjz9ZpHgH
  • 🇦🇺 Westpac Leading Index MoM (MAY) Actual: -0.06% Previous: 0.19% https://www.dailyfx.com/economic-calendar#2021-06-16
  • MSCI #EmergingMarkets Index (EEM), which is heavily weighed in Chinese stocks, has been struggling to breach the 54.97 - 55.34 inflection zone A hawkish #Fed (especially amid ebbing #PBOC liquidity measures), could risk weighing the index Breach under 20-day SMA exposes MAR low https://t.co/4WQED01FWV
  • Knowing how to accurately value a stock enables traders to identify and take advantage of opportunities in the stock market. Find out the difference between a stock's market and intrinsic value, and the importance of the two here: https://t.co/QszmdZFxlk https://t.co/Lt3Z0TODqu
  • Natural gas spot prices have been on the rise, recapturing a key trendline, following the EIA’s Short-Term Energy Outlook. Where can prices head from here? Find out from @FxWestwater here:https://t.co/yK48nZD1ag https://t.co/CPBSrdO485
USD/JPY Short Term Outlook with Fed Speculation in Focus

USD/JPY Short Term Outlook with Fed Speculation in Focus

Oded Shimoni, Junior Currency Analyst

Talking Points:

- USD/JPY nudging lower after finding resistance around 102.50

- Fed-Speak is in focus ahead for the pair, as the market eagerly awaits September 21

- Watching JGBs proving extremely telling this past months

The USD/JPY is nudging lower after the pair found resistance around 102.50, implying that further momentum to the upside might require a fundamental catalyst for a push higher.

This makes the next round of Fed-Speak interesting to watch for potential shifts in interest rates expectations as the market eagerly awaits what might be an explosive day September 21 with both the Fed and BOJ policy decision.

Against this backdrop we will form our outlook and look to find short term trading opportunities using different tools such as the Grid Sight Index (GSI) indicator.

USD/JPY Short Term Outlook with Fed Speculation in Focus

Click Here for the DailyFX Calendar

Fed-Speak takes center stage in the hours ahead as Boston and Dallas Fed Presidents Eric Rosengren and Robert Kaplan are due to give speeches.

Following a round of weak data including worse than expected NFPs and ISM numbers, Fed rate hike expectations have deteriorated lately, but slightly picked up yesterday for 18% in September and 51.4% in December (according to Fed Fund futures). Conveniently, exactly when the US Dollar hit support.

Participants will look to see if there is more aggressive talk of potential hikes before the two-week blackout period ahead of this month’s FOMC meeting.

A hawkish lean might help see the US Dollar edge higher as the market eagerly awaits what might be an explosive day September 21 with both the Fed and BOJ policy decision.

Indeed, the BOJ decision will be in huge focus as the bank wrestles with perceived lack of firepower to stimulate the economy.

In this context, looking at Japanese Government Bonds behavior has proved telling. The last spike in yields, apparently against the backdrop of traders betting against the effectiveness of BOJ actions, initially saw only a limited response by the pair before plunging lower.

USD/JPY Technical Levels:

USD/JPY Short Term Outlook with Fed Speculation in Focus

Click here for the DailyFX Support & Resistance tool

We use volatility measures as a way to better fit our strategy to market conditions. The Yen is expected to be the most volatile currency versus the US Dollar based on 1-week and 1-month implied volatilities, but ATR measures suggest a reduced level of volatility as of late.

In turn, this could imply that key tech levels could hold in the short term, but things seems likely to pick up ahead.

USD/JPY 30-Min Chart (With the GSI Indicator): September 9, 2016

USD/JPY Short Term Outlook with Fed Speculation in Focus

(Click to Enlarge)

The USD/JPY is trading at a potential resistance area below 102.50, with GSI calculating even percentage of past movements to either side in the short term.

The GSI indicator above calculates the distribution of past event outcomes given certain momentum patterns. By matching events in the past, GSI describes how often the price moved in a certain direction.

You can learn more about the GSI here.

Other levels of resistance might be 102.882, 102.30, 103.60 and the 104 handle.

Levels of support might be 102, 101.50 and 101.

We generally want to see GSI with the historical patterns significantly shifted in one direction, which alongside a pre-determined bias and other technical tools could provide a solid trading idea that offer a proper way to define risk.

We studied over 43 million real trades and found that traders who successfully define risk were three times more likely to turn a profit.

Read more on the Traits of Successful Traders” research.

Meanwhile, the DailyFX Speculative Sentiment Index (SSI) is showing that about 74.0% of traders are long the USD/JPY at the time of writing, offering a short bias on a contrarian basis.

You can find more info about the DailyFX SSI indicator here

--- Written by Oded Shimoni, Junior Currency Analyst for DailyFX.com

To contact Oded Shimoni, e-mail oshimoni@dailyfx.com

Follow him on Twitter at @OdedShimoni

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

DISCLOSURES