News & Analysis at your fingertips.

We use a range of cookies to give you the best possible browsing experience. By continuing to use this website, you agree to our use of cookies.
You can learn more about our cookie policy here, or by following the link at the bottom of any page on our site.

0

Notifications

Notifications below are based on filters which can be adjusted via Economic and Webinar Calendar pages.

Live Webinar

Live Webinar Events

0

Economic Calendar

Economic Calendar Events

0
Free Trading Guides
EUR/USD
Bullish
Oil - US Crude
Bearish
Wall Street
Bearish
Gold
Bearish
GBP/USD
Mixed
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
USD/JPY
Mixed
More View more
Real Time News
  • WTI crude oil prices (WTI) lost 4.7% so far this week. Demand concerns and a rising US Dollar sent crude oil prices lower on Thursday. Cloudy economic recovery prospects weighed on sentiment, despite falling US crude inventories. https://t.co/nVHCe4DX3g
  • Based on recent price action in the US Dollar, might... $USDSGD $USDMYR $USDPHP $USDIDR ...be heading higher next? Check out my latest #ASEAN technical update here - https://www.dailyfx.com/forex/technical/article/special_report/2020/09/24/US-Dollar-Comeback-Ahead-USDSGD-USDMYR-USDPHP-USDIDR.html?CHID=9&QPID=917702&utm_source=Twitter&utm_medium=Dubrovsky&utm_campaign=twr https://t.co/9sIQFVeydt
  • Wall Street Futures Update: Dow Jones (-0.393%) S&P 500 (-0.418%) Nasdaq 100 (-0.653%) [delayed] -BBG
  • An economic calendar is a resource that allows traders to learn about important economic information scheduled to be released. Stay up to date on the most important global economic data here: https://t.co/JdvW6HNuqV https://t.co/FXpr6RibWT
  • Markets attempted pull risk trends out of their dive this past session, but sentiment (via $SPX) ultimately returned to its bearish course. Meanwhile, $EURUSD is consistent with its reversal. My video for today: https://www.dailyfx.com/forex/video/daily_news_report/2020/09/24/EURUSD-Extends-its-Dive-as-Late-Day-Selloff-Puts-SP-500-On-Verge-of-Correction.html?ref-author=Kicklighter&QPID=917719&CHID=9 https://t.co/Q6JZKW2B1y
  • IG Client Sentiment Update: Our data shows the vast majority of traders in Ripple are long at 96.57%, while traders in EUR/GBP are at opposite extremes with 64.76%. See the summary chart below and full details and charts on DailyFX: https://www.dailyfx.com/sentiment https://t.co/JHNAiIgVLv
  • Forex Update: As of 04:00, these are your best and worst performers based on the London trading schedule: 🇨🇭CHF: 0.11% 🇪🇺EUR: -0.02% 🇯🇵JPY: -0.06% 🇨🇦CAD: -0.08% 🇳🇿NZD: -0.22% 🇦🇺AUD: -0.33% View the performance of all markets via https://www.dailyfx.com/forex-rates#currencies https://t.co/im3IxxDQ3y
  • Indices Update: As of 04:00, these are your best and worst performers based on the London trading schedule: Wall Street: 0.15% US 500: 0.12% FTSE 100: -0.94% Germany 30: -1.00% France 40: -1.04% View the performance of all markets via https://www.dailyfx.com/forex-rates#indices https://t.co/X6mMfIY6HW
  • The US Dollar, British Pound, and Euro will all be closely watching key geopolitical developments in North America (Powell testimony), the UK (Brexit talks) and Europe (EU summit). Get your market update from @ZabelinDimitri here:https://t.co/q4AJW6PTCu https://t.co/e0rwBFOnqX
  • RT @stlouisfed: The current recession has in many ways been more extreme than the Great Depression, yet the economy is projected to recover…
GBP/USD Short Term View Ahead of UK and US PMIs

GBP/USD Short Term View Ahead of UK and US PMIs

2016-09-01 07:56:00
Oded Shimoni, Junior Currency Analyst
Share:

Talking Points:

- GBP/USD trading around 1.3150 after finding some support below the 1.31 handle

- UK Markit PMIs in focus on Brexit impact, US ISM numbers ahead as well

- Weak NFPs might be able to push GBP/USD out of a daily wedge formation

The GBP/USD is trading around 1.3150 after the pair found support below the 1.31 handle, following the recent run of US Dollar strength.

Fed rate hike expectations are at center stage as we approach Friday’s NFPs, but today’s event risk could prove influential as well.

This puts the spotlight on the UK Markit Manufacturing PMI and the US ISM figures.

Against this backdrop we will form our outlook and look to find short term trading opportunities using different tools such as the Grid Sight Index (GSI) indicator.

GBP/USD Short Term View Ahead of UK and US PMIs

Click Here for the DailyFX Calendar

Markit August UK Manufacturing PMI headlines the economic docket in European trading hours.

The diffusion index is expected to slightly improve for a 49.0 print from the prior 48.2 number.

The figures today are of high importance in the context of the Brexit situation. The initial indications from the UK’s economy has shown a mixed bag of readings, with businesses arguably showing more signs of post-Brexit jitters than UK’s private consumer.

A big deviation from expectations could prove market moving, with a straight-forward response, as further deterioration could be interpreted as adding to a more dovish BOE posture, and vice-versa.

US ISM Manufacturing is on tap as well, with the index expected to slow for a 52.0 print from the prior 52.6 figure.

The ISM numbers do have the capabilities introduce some volatility, even with the NFPs tomorrow. If these numbers come out better than expected, this could add to the overall positive shift in the US Dollar, potentially prompting the market to position for a favorable NFP report.

GBP/USD Technical Levels:

GBP/USD Short Term View Ahead of UK and US PMIs

Click here for the DailyFX Support & Resistance tool

We use volatility measures as a way to better fit our strategy to market conditions. The British Pound is expected to be more volatile than most majors versus the US Dollar based on 1-week implied volatility measures (only Yen more).

With that said, volatility has been subdued lately with 20-day ATR measures sitting near 2016 lows.

In turn, this may suggest that key technical levels might be able to hold in the short term, potentially offering range trading plays after outsized jumps on today’s data prints, with the NFPs on Friday an obvious candidate for a big fundamental shift.

GBP/USD 30-Min Chart (With the GSI Indicator): September 1, 2016

GBP/USD Short Term View Ahead of UK and US PMIs

(Click to Enlarge)

The GBP/USD is trading below an area of resistance above 1.3150, with GSI calculating higher percentages of past movement to the upside in the short term.

The GSI indicator above calculates the distribution of past event outcomes given certain momentum patterns. By matching events in the past, GSI describes how often the price moved in a certain direction.

You can learn more about the GSI here.

Further levels of resistance might be 1.3200, 1.3220, the area above 1.3250, 1.33 and a zone between 1.3350-1.3335.

Levels of support may be 1.3120, 1.3100, 1.3050, a zone above 1.3020 and the big 1.30 figure.

We generally want to see GSI with the historical patterns significantly shifted in one direction, which alongside a pre-determined bias and other technical tools could provide a solid trading idea that offer a proper way to define risk.

We studied over 43 million real trades and found that traders who successfully define risk were three times more likely to turn a profit.

Read more on the Traits of Successful Traders” research.

Meanwhile, the DailyFX Speculative Sentiment Index (SSI) is showing that about 52.3% of traders are long the GBP/USD at the time of writing, offering a slight short bias on a contrarian basis.

You can find more info about the DailyFX SSI indicator here

--- Written by Oded Shimoni, Junior Currency Analyst for DailyFX.com

To contact Oded Shimoni, e-mail oshimoni@dailyfx.com

Follow him on Twitter at @OdedShimoni

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

DISCLOSURES