News & Analysis at your fingertips.

We use a range of cookies to give you the best possible browsing experience. By continuing to use this website, you agree to our use of cookies.
You can learn more about our cookie policy here, or by following the link at the bottom of any page on our site.

0

Notifications

Notifications below are based on filters which can be adjusted via Economic and Webinar Calendar pages.

Live Webinar

Live Webinar Events

0

Economic Calendar

Economic Calendar Events

0
Free Trading Guides
Subscribe
Please try again
EUR/USD
Mixed
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
Oil - US Crude
Mixed
Wall Street
Bearish
Gold
Mixed
GBP/USD
Bullish
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
USD/JPY
Mixed
More View more
Real Time News
  • Commodities Update: As of 18:00, these are your best and worst performers based on the London trading schedule: Oil - US Crude: 0.16% Gold: -0.87% Silver: -1.70% View the performance of all markets via https://www.dailyfx.com/forex-rates#commodities https://t.co/2ZM2rM1kJN
  • Well one $NDX trendline is dead and gone after today's rout and secondary support is coming up quick near 12,760 https://t.co/hJSPch42Zm
  • Wall Street IG Client Sentiment: Our data shows traders are now net-long Wall Street for the first time since Mar 05, 2021 when Wall Street traded near 31,529.20. A contrarian view of crowd sentiment points to Wall Street weakness. https://www.dailyfx.com/sentiment https://t.co/zeXYkoKVW6
  • Nasdaq extends its selloff as tech stocks slide further due to surging bond yields. Get your #Nasdaq market update from @RichDvorakFX here: https://t.co/eEeeFpFYiF https://t.co/AFfRIHZMgr
  • IG Client Sentiment Update: Our data shows the vast majority of traders in Silver are long at 90.05%, while traders in GBP/USD are at opposite extremes with 67.50%. See the summary chart below and full details and charts on DailyFX: https://www.dailyfx.com/sentiment https://t.co/dhdLOMU0TX
  • Nasdaq Extends Slide, Bond Yields Spike on Fed Taper Fears -via @DailyFX Link to Analysis: https://www.dailyfx.com/forex/market_alert/2021/05/12/nasdaq-extends-slide-bond-yields-spike-on-fed-taper-fears.html #StockMarket $NDX $QQQ https://t.co/e08fA8Wy73
  • US Treasury Department: - U.S. ran record $1.9 trillion budget deficit in first 7 months of FY2021 - Federal outlays climbed 22% to $4.1 trillion from Oct. through April - Revenues rose 16%, reflecting 2020 tax deferrals
  • Indices Update: As of 18:00, these are your best and worst performers based on the London trading schedule: FTSE 100: -0.28% Germany 30: -0.28% France 40: -0.34% Wall Street: -1.41% US 500: -1.71% View the performance of all markets via https://www.dailyfx.com/forex-rates#indices https://t.co/PfhSpL5XsO
  • 🇺🇸 Monthly Budget Statement (APR) Actual: $-226B Expected: $-220B Previous: $-660B https://www.dailyfx.com/economic-calendar#2021-05-12
  • We've taken out short-term support on $SPX. Bigger levels below though. For this index, it is 4,000. For the Nasdaq 100, which has a floor more immediately at hand, it is 13,000 https://t.co/KeHxTw81Ht
NZD/USD Levels To Watch Following New Zealand's CPI Miss

NZD/USD Levels To Watch Following New Zealand's CPI Miss

Oded Shimoni, Junior Currency Analyst

Talking Points:

- NZD/USD bouncing from what appears to be a key support area below the 0.7080 level

- CPI data missed estimates to see a quick drop of about 70 pips for the Kiwi

- GSI is a powerful big data indicator that can help you determine whether short-term trends will continue or reverse

The NZD/USD is trading above the 0.71 handle (at the time this report was written), after the currency saw a bounce off support following a quick drop on a miss to CPI estimates.

A quiet economic calendar might imply that risk trends will be in focus for directional conviction today, as the pair's move higher seems to have coincided with firming sentiment.

Taking this into consideration, we look to find short term trading opportunities using the Grid Sight Index (GSI) indicator.

NZD/USD Levels To Watch Following New Zealand's CPI Miss

Click Here for the DailyFX Calendar

A quiet economic calendar appears likely to see sentiment trends taking center stage today. The Kiwi saw a move lower in the Asia session, even though other sentiment linked currencies moved higher alogside share prices, on the backdrop of the miss to CPI estimates, which appears to have added to RBNZ rate cut speculation. The bounce higher following the quick decline might be, at least in part, related to firming sentiment. Consequently, if we see a shift in risk trends, the sentiment linked currency could suffer on the aforementioned fundamental backdrop, as well as from a general “risk off” situation.

NZD/USD 3-Min GSI Chart: July 15, 2016

NZD/USD Levels To Watch Following New Zealand's CPI Miss

The NZD/USD is trading near a resistance level at 0.7120 (see chart below). Indeed the GSI indicator is implying that 48% similar past momentum events have seen some downside movements. The indicator calculates the distribution of past event outcomes given certain momentum patterns, and can give you a look at the market in a way that's never been possible before, analyzing millions of historical prices in real time. By matching events in the past, GSI describes how often the price moved in a certain direction.

You can learn more about the GSI here.

NZD/USD Technical Levels:

NZD/USD Levels To Watch Following New Zealand's CPI Miss

Click here for the DailyFX Support & Resistance tool

We use volatility measures as a way to better fit our strategy to market conditions. ATR readings (on a 14-day study) is signaling the highest levels since April. Taking this into consideration might indicate breakout and trend oriented plays might be appropriate.

NZD/USD 30-Min Chart With SPX 500 Overlay: July 18, 2016

NZD/USD Levels To Watch Following New Zealand's CPI Miss

The NZD/USD is trading at what appears to be a level of resistance at the 0.7120 figure. Further levels of resistance on a move higher might be 0.7151 and a zone above the 0.72 handle. If price manages to move above that area, focus might be put on the 0.7250 figure followed by what looks like a key resistance area above the 0.73 handle.

Levels of potential support on a move lower may be 0.71, followed by the area of support below 0.7080, an area below 0.7050 followed by another zone below the big 0.70 figure.

When price reaches those levels, short term traders might use the GSI to view how prices reacted in the past given a certain momentum pattern, and see the distribution of historical outcomes in which the price reversed or continued in the same direction. We generally want to see GSI with the historical patterns significantly shifted in one direction, which could potentially be used with a pre-determined bias as well.

A common way to use GSI is to help you fade tops and bottoms, and trade breakouts. That’s why traders may want to use the GSI indicator when price reaches those specific pre-determined levels, and fit a strategy that can offer a proper way to define risk. We studied over 43 million real trades and found that traders who do that were three times more likely to turn a profit. Read more on the Traits of Successful Traders” research.

Meanwhile, the DailyFX Speculative Sentiment Index (SSI) is showing that about 40.6% of traders are long the NZD/USD at the time of writing, reducing short positions significantly on the move lower, perhaps taking profits too quickly after an extreme short reading July 10 (see the “Traits of Successful Traders” research). In turn, this could imply further weakness ahead.

You can find more info about the DailyFX SSI indicator here

--- Written by Oded Shimoni, Junior Currency Analyst for DailyFX.com

To contact Oded Shimoni, e-mail oshimoni@dailyfx.com

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

DISCLOSURES