We use a range of cookies to give you the best possible browsing experience. By continuing to use this website, you agree to our use of cookies.
You can learn more about our cookie policy here, or by following the link at the bottom of any page on our site.

Free Trading Guides
Oil - US Crude
Wall Street
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
More View more
Real Time News
  • The Dow enjoyed its biggest bullish gap higher on the open since April 7th. A statement clearing the 200-day moving average. NFPs is back as a market mover https://t.co/DzE0h8AV5B
  • IG Client Sentiment Update: Our data shows the vast majority of traders in Ripple are long at 97.19%, while traders in US 500 are at opposite extremes with 73.28%. See the summary chart below and full details and charts on DailyFX: https://www.dailyfx.com/sentiment https://t.co/BRIkHghn5j
  • Commodities Update: As of 13:00, these are your best and worst performers based on the London trading schedule: Oil - US Crude: 4.31% Gold: -1.86% Silver: -2.24% View the performance of all markets via https://www.dailyfx.com/forex-rates#commodities https://t.co/LFsykmg4W9
  • Heads Up:🇨🇦 Ivey PMI s.a due at 14:00 GMT (15min) Previous: 22.8 https://www.dailyfx.com/economic-calendar#2020-06-05
  • Gold Sinks, USD/JPY Surges as NFP Report Smashes Expectations - via @DailyFX https://t.co/csSLlNVzVJ
  • Indices Update: As of 13:00, these are your best and worst performers based on the London trading schedule: France 40: 3.25% Wall Street: 2.70% Germany 30: 2.65% US 500: 1.90% FTSE 100: 1.79% View the performance of all markets via https://www.dailyfx.com/forex-rates#indices https://t.co/GyZ4oc1mGG
  • me and other market bears after that NFP print.... https://t.co/NFQOzKWtNG
  • 🇷🇺 Foreign Exchange Reserves Actual: $566.1B Previous: $566B https://www.dailyfx.com/economic-calendar#2020-06-05
  • US #NFP report for May 2020 crushed the median estimate on Wall Street looking for -7.5 million jobs lost, but the actual figure crossed the wires at 2.5 million jobs added. Get your market update here: https://t.co/8i0L6YIqjy https://t.co/K2laOv7Unk
  • #Cable is trading around 1.2650 in early turnover and is back at highs last seen in mid-March as the pair continue to make a short-term series of higher lows and higher highs.Get your $GBPUSD market update from @nickcawley1 here: https://t.co/XCrsgxaXux https://t.co/5z8GFfyN8X
S&P 500: Ready to Rock or Roll?

S&P 500: Ready to Rock or Roll?

2016-05-03 09:54:00
Paul Robinson, Strategist

What’s inside:

  • Market stuck between upward trend and stiff overhead resistance
  • Watching a couple of signposts for clues as to the next most likely prolonged direction for the S&P 500

Yesterday, we went over some key short-term price points which the S&P 500 (FXCM: SPX500) had been abiding by for the past few weeks. Stepping back and looking at the market more broadly, it is stuck between a rock and a hard place. The big picture resistance zone between 2083 and 2116, which the S&P recently turned lower from, is making for tough-sledding from the long-side.

However, buyers’ willingness to step up remains in place. Friday, the S&P bounced from a lower parallel which is keeping intact a series of higher highs and higher lows, albeit with lackluster momentum. At one point during Friday’s session the market was trading at levels seen during the third week of March – not exactly inspiring if you’ve been holding long, but the same could be said for the shorts, too.

We’ve been saying in recent weeks because of this dynamic (upward trend into overhead resistance), the preferred strategy is to identify and trade levels off the shorter-term charts with in mind of kicking out positions within a day or two of entering.

What could all this ‘hem and haw’ price action mean? The market may be in the process of digesting the strong double-digit % gains off the Feb 11 retest low, readying itself for a push to record highs, or slowly forming a top. It’s tough to tell just yet. (Leaning towards the latter at the moment.)

With the always insightful, “it could go up, it could go down” outlook, there are some things we will be watching which will help forge a stronger view one way or another.

First, the lower parallel discussed yesterday which connects the higher lows. Stay above, then we give the trend the benefit of the doubt, with potential for either another leg higher or further consolidation. (Likely the latter if the market is to remain strong given overhead resistance.) If the S&P breaks support following a failure to trade above the resistance zone, then sellers could quickly find themselves with the upper hand as the trend of higher highs, high lows quickly comes under fire and we get a clear rejection of overhead price levels.

SPX500 Daily/2-hr

S&P 500: Ready to Rock or Roll?

The second factor of interest at this time is the diverging Nasdaq 100. (Our thoughts regarding this in Friday's article, "Perhaps the Nasdaq is the canary in the coal mine, time will soon tell.") It has fallen off pretty hard recently, with no help from its largest constituents reporting disappointing earnings. A rotation back into the tech-heavy index is a possibility, but if weakness persists then it is more likely to be a warning sign of deteriorating market breadth.

(I will soon delve into this further; there is potential that the 100 is undergoing a very large topping formation which dates back to last summer. Hint: The formation resembles the upper portion of a person’s body.)

Thirdly, seasonality is another consideration as we are now in one of the worst performing months and segments of the year for stocks, historically. I’m sure many of you have heard the old saying, “Sell in May and go away.”

---Written by Paul Robinson, Market Analyst

You can follow Paul on Twitter @PaulRobinsonFX, or email him directly at instructor@dailyfx.com.

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.


News & Analysis at your fingertips.