News & Analysis at your fingertips.

We use a range of cookies to give you the best possible browsing experience. By continuing to use this website, you agree to our use of cookies.
You can learn more about our cookie policy here, or by following the link at the bottom of any page on our site. See our updated Privacy Policy here.



Notifications below are based on filters which can be adjusted via Economic and Webinar Calendar pages.

Live Webinar

Live Webinar Events


Economic Calendar

Economic Calendar Events

Free Trading Guides
Please try again
Wall Street
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
More View more
Real Time News
  • While the #AUDUSD downtrend seems to have tentatively resumed already, the reasons for it to continue that are described here still look valid
  • Looking at the moves in the #DollarIndex and #gold in the days after US CPI this week, @tastytradeRyan, @victorJ0NES and I were on to something here... Bring on #FOMC!
  • Copper prices eye key support to resume downtrend - #HG1! chart
  • $USD to next resistance at 93.20 next levels up 93.43 and then the 2021 high at 93.73
  • USD/JPY extends the rebound from the weekly low (109.11) as the stronger-than-expected US Retail Sales report fuels speculation for an imminent shift in monetary policy. Get your market update from @DavidJSong here:
  • $ES from resistance to support now at the weekly low, testing a few different support elements here, also a 618 $SPX
  • The $SPX is going to keep it interesting for us through this final trading session. The 50-day SMA is under strain, its 'quad witching' today, evergreen uncertainty over weekend and FOMC on the threat radar
  • The S&P 500 and its counterparts are leaning into support as the end of the week nears. DailyFX's @JohnKicklighter discusses the possibility of a break before next week's FOMC and Evergrande deadline!
  • You're Not The Only One Bored Of 'New' Apple iPhones via @IBDinvestors
S&P 500: Ready to Rock or Roll?

S&P 500: Ready to Rock or Roll?

Paul Robinson, Strategist

What’s inside:

  • Market stuck between upward trend and stiff overhead resistance
  • Watching a couple of signposts for clues as to the next most likely prolonged direction for the S&P 500

Yesterday, we went over some key short-term price points which the S&P 500 (FXCM: SPX500) had been abiding by for the past few weeks. Stepping back and looking at the market more broadly, it is stuck between a rock and a hard place. The big picture resistance zone between 2083 and 2116, which the S&P recently turned lower from, is making for tough-sledding from the long-side.

However, buyers’ willingness to step up remains in place. Friday, the S&P bounced from a lower parallel which is keeping intact a series of higher highs and higher lows, albeit with lackluster momentum. At one point during Friday’s session the market was trading at levels seen during the third week of March – not exactly inspiring if you’ve been holding long, but the same could be said for the shorts, too.

We’ve been saying in recent weeks because of this dynamic (upward trend into overhead resistance), the preferred strategy is to identify and trade levels off the shorter-term charts with in mind of kicking out positions within a day or two of entering.

What could all this ‘hem and haw’ price action mean? The market may be in the process of digesting the strong double-digit % gains off the Feb 11 retest low, readying itself for a push to record highs, or slowly forming a top. It’s tough to tell just yet. (Leaning towards the latter at the moment.)

With the always insightful, “it could go up, it could go down” outlook, there are some things we will be watching which will help forge a stronger view one way or another.

First, the lower parallel discussed yesterday which connects the higher lows. Stay above, then we give the trend the benefit of the doubt, with potential for either another leg higher or further consolidation. (Likely the latter if the market is to remain strong given overhead resistance.) If the S&P breaks support following a failure to trade above the resistance zone, then sellers could quickly find themselves with the upper hand as the trend of higher highs, high lows quickly comes under fire and we get a clear rejection of overhead price levels.

SPX500 Daily/2-hr

S&P 500: Ready to Rock or Roll?

The second factor of interest at this time is the diverging Nasdaq 100. (Our thoughts regarding this in Friday's article, "Perhaps the Nasdaq is the canary in the coal mine, time will soon tell.") It has fallen off pretty hard recently, with no help from its largest constituents reporting disappointing earnings. A rotation back into the tech-heavy index is a possibility, but if weakness persists then it is more likely to be a warning sign of deteriorating market breadth.

(I will soon delve into this further; there is potential that the 100 is undergoing a very large topping formation which dates back to last summer. Hint: The formation resembles the upper portion of a person’s body.)

Thirdly, seasonality is another consideration as we are now in one of the worst performing months and segments of the year for stocks, historically. I’m sure many of you have heard the old saying, “Sell in May and go away.”

---Written by Paul Robinson, Market Analyst

You can follow Paul on Twitter @PaulRobinsonFX, or email him directly at

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.