News & Analysis at your fingertips.

We use a range of cookies to give you the best possible browsing experience. By continuing to use this website, you agree to our use of cookies.
You can learn more about our cookie policy here, or by following the link at the bottom of any page on our site.

0

Notifications

Notifications below are based on filters which can be adjusted via Economic and Webinar Calendar pages.

Live Webinar

Live Webinar Events

0

Economic Calendar

Economic Calendar Events

0
Free Trading Guides
Subscribe
Please try again
EUR/USD
Bullish
Oil - US Crude
Mixed
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
Wall Street
Bullish
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
Gold
Mixed
GBP/USD
Bullish
USD/JPY
Mixed
More View more
Real Time News
  • 8 out of 9 Dow Jones sectors ended lower, with 76.7% of the index’s constituents closing in the red. Industrials (+1.15%), communication services (+1.03) and financials (+0.93%) were among the best performers, while consumer staples (-0.21%) trailed behind. https://t.co/RXnemidUKk
  • Entry orders are a valuable tool in forex trading. Traders can strategize to come up with a great trading plan, but if they can’t execute that plan effectively, all their hard work might as well be thrown out. Learn how to place entry orders here: https://t.co/1mnOXUuBpt https://t.co/4z74mA8b9Q
  • *Reminder: Weekly Strategy Webinar tomorrow morning at 8:30AM EST (12:30 GMT) on DailyFX!! https://t.co/lxd5fZnn4H
  • The US Dollar plummeted on the heels of NFP with an outside-weekly reversal risking further May losses. Here are the levels that matter on the $DXY charts. Get your market update from @MBForex here: https://t.co/62p4Gd5E2c https://t.co/S6FwI8x3uK
  • Key levels in forex tend to draw attention to traders in the market. These are psychological prices which tie into the human psyche and way of thinking. Learn about psychological levels here: https://t.co/8A1QhwMVKo https://t.co/ttuTdWFDD5
  • Long $USDCNH was one of my favorite setups for the 2nd quarter btw. I maintain, I like the fundamentals; but the greenback's recent battering needs to relent before this can perform
  • The Dollar's tumble this past week was an abrupt one. We'll see if inflation pressures trigger a shift in risk and rate expectations in the US which could turn the USD's bearings. Meanwhile, a pair I haven't highlighted ... https://t.co/yXl1aoOlIy https://t.co/TWV7tqv2y8
  • $DOGEUSD's daily range post Elon SNL spot is 0.2900. That may not sound like a lot but the current spot rate is ~ 0.5600. The lower wick (reversal from Sunday's low) is a 35% recovery from the low. A speculator's market, not an investor's. https://t.co/hAjg8YO7xA
  • What are some factors driving AUD? Get your free forecast for this quarter here:https://t.co/z85CIVYiuK #DailyFXGuides https://t.co/ZhVyZvw5Ii
  • Last week ended well for $EURUSD, with Friday’s shockingly poor US jobs data giving it a lift, and this week could well see its advance extend if it can break conclusively above resistance at 1.2150. Get your market update from @MartinSEssex here: https://t.co/EFPGUI8Uxc https://t.co/LZA6oXsmJO
WTI Crude Oil Price Forecast: New Lows on No Production Cut & Strong USD

WTI Crude Oil Price Forecast: New Lows on No Production Cut & Strong USD

Tyler Yell, CMT, Currency Strategist

To receive Tyler’s analysis directly via email, please SIGN UP HERE

Talking Points:

Crude Oil plunged to new 6-year lows on Monday, the trading day after OPEC decided to lift their output target (read: drill baby, drill), which pushed the price of Oil below the August 24th low. We stated earlier that what separates this move from the August move is that the August move was a momentum-based worldwide dump of risk assets whereas the current move towards presumed new lows is more fundamentally driven by the strong dollar, weak demand, and increasing production. Looking across the board, the easiest, most likely component that would take Oil higher would be a sell-off in the US Dollar were the Fed to disappoint USD Bulls in the same manner that the ECB disappointed EUR bears and those in Mario Draghi’s crowded trade. The US Dollar is inversely correlated to the price of US Oil so a weaker US Dollar would presumably send US Oil (and other dollar-denominated assets higher.

To Learn What FXCM’s Most Successful Traders Do on a Consistent Basis, sign up for our free guide here.

A pertinent, yet hard to answer question when the price of an asset is trading at new multi-year highs is where the next target is. The weaker answer to a strong question is the prior multi-year extreme. On Crude Oil, that closing low of 2008 happened on December 18th, 2008 at $33.87, whereas the intraday low sits at 32.40, of December 19th, 2008. Between the extremes of 2008 and where we presently are lay a few Fibonacci relationships. ,Below the August 24th, Black Monday low is the 1.414-1.618% Fibonacci extension as shown on the chart. That zone of Fibonacci confluence is between $36.55-$34.85. If price breaks lower from there, we would likely turn our focus toward the price extremes mentioned above.

As a trader who believes that price and the collective minds of market participants have a memory of turns, keep an eye on the price action of Oil around December 18th & 19th where we made lows seven years ago. Bearish sentiment will likely build into that, and that is a few days after the anticipated FOMC meeting where the Fed is expected to raise rates for the first time since 2006. Should a push lower in Crude Oil take place, USD/CAD will likely be making a confirming move toward 1.3750/1.4000. From a sentiment perspective, our own internal readings are showing an SSI reading of +2.555.We use our SSI as a contrarian indicator to price action, and the fact that the majority of traders are long gives signal that the US Oil may continue lower. This trend lower in US Oil will remain in place as price trades below resistance of today’s high at $40.11, a level that acted as support before today’s ~5% decline.

T.Y.

Interested In our Analyst’s Longer-Term Oil Outlook, be sure to sign up for our free oil guide here.

WTI Crude Oil Price Forecast: New Lows on No Production Cut & Strong USD

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

DISCLOSURES