News & Analysis at your fingertips.

We use a range of cookies to give you the best possible browsing experience. By continuing to use this website, you agree to our use of cookies.
You can learn more about our cookie policy here, or by following the link at the bottom of any page on our site. See our updated Privacy Policy here.

0

Notifications

Notifications below are based on filters which can be adjusted via Economic and Webinar Calendar pages.

Live Webinar

Live Webinar Events

0

Economic Calendar

Economic Calendar Events

0
Free Trading Guides
Subscribe
Please try again
EUR/USD
Mixed
Oil - US Crude
Mixed
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
Wall Street
Bearish
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
Gold
Mixed
GBP/USD
Bearish
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
USD/JPY
Bullish
More View more
Real Time News
  • Natural gas spot prices have been on the rise, recapturing a key trendline, following the EIA’s Short-Term Energy Outlook. Where can prices head from here? Find out from @FxWestwater here:https://t.co/yK48nZD1ag https://t.co/rRT4oBDnrK
  • Even in quiet market conditions, you can always find some activity #Philippine stock index (PSEi) up about 13.5% from late May low Expectations of easing lockdowns in the Manila capital region have been a fundamental driver Falling Wedge breakout facing the 61.8% Fib at 6916 https://t.co/VPtB78GRvl
  • USD/JPY IG Client Sentiment: Our data shows traders are now net-short USD/JPY for the first time since Jun 04, 2021 when USD/JPY traded near 109.52. A contrarian view of crowd sentiment points to USD/JPY strength. https://www.dailyfx.com/sentiment https://t.co/KPOyPWpuDn
  • Interesting tone update from the Bank of Indonesia ahead of this week's rate decision The CB said yesterday that it sees Rupiah weakening as 'still reasonable' But. it will maintain measures to stabilize the exchange rate See my tech update here - https://t.co/vu89Lt0boZ
  • The US Dollar continues to see varied performance against ASEAN currencies. USD/SGD is consolidating. USD/THB may bounce. USD/IDR and USD/PHP could continue lower.Get your market update from @ddubrovskyFX here:https://t.co/Ccvcy93t5X https://t.co/cejykWrenF
  • RT @FxWestwater: $AUDUSD Eyes RBA Minutes After Iron Ore Rally Fails to Lift Aussie Dollar Link: https://www.dailyfx.com/forex/fundamental/daily_briefing/daily_pieces/asia_am_briefing/2021/06/14/AUDUSD-Eyes-RBA-Minutes-After-Iron-Ore-Rally-Fails-to-Lift-Aussie-Dollar.html?CHID=9&QPID=917708&utm_source=Twitter&utm_medium=Westwater&utm_campaign=twr https://t.co/AlQ6…
  • The Dow Jones, Nasdaq 100 and S&P 500 await much needed insight from the Federal Reserve on the central bank’s planned policy path given recent economic data releases. Get your market update from @PeterHanksFX here:https://t.co/bZso3WxyC6 https://t.co/d4YJ8jbGok
  • GBP/USD Eyes Trend Support as US Dollar Awaits Fed Dot Plot -via @DailyFX Link to Analysis: https://www.dailyfx.com/forex/market_alert/2021/06/14/gbp-usd-eyes-trend-support-as-us-dollar-awaits-fed-dot-plot.html $GBPUSD #Forex #Trading https://t.co/1BkZ4x0uCG
  • Are gold prices the ‘canary in the coal mine’ for the Federal Reserve meeting? Taper talk may indeed be on the menu (even if it won’t formally arrive until later this year). Get your $XAUUSD market update from @CVecchioFX here:https://t.co/gsoRisZzV6 https://t.co/cjqt0SvWIx
  • Forex Update: As of 20:00, these are your best and worst performers based on the London trading schedule: 🇳🇿NZD: 0.17% 🇦🇺AUD: 0.10% 🇪🇺EUR: 0.09% 🇬🇧GBP: -0.05% 🇨🇭CHF: -0.19% 🇯🇵JPY: -0.37% View the performance of all markets via https://www.dailyfx.com/forex-rates#currencies https://t.co/Yx2O1n8Yxc
WTI Crude Oil Price Forecast: Double-Bottom Pattern Favored Above $43.43

WTI Crude Oil Price Forecast: Double-Bottom Pattern Favored Above $43.43

Tyler Yell, CMT, Currency Strategist

To receive Tyler’s analysis directly via email, please SIGN UP HERE

Talking Points:

  • Crude Oil Technical Strategy: Close > 43.43 helps validate a base signals a base
  • 13-DMA Holding Today’s Low So Far
  • RSI (5) Showing Bullish Divergence Into a Higher-Low

Oil looks to finish off its worst month of price performance since July by falling nearly 11%. The fundamental cause of this drop is due to doubt that OPEC will find the willingness from Non-OPEC producers to stop producing at such high levels. In a world where nobody wants to lose market share if the price of oil rebounds, there is no one willing to be the first to volunteer to cut production. This unwillingness could ironically send some producers over the edge and to the point of no return (read: bankruptcy) should their rigs fail or the price stay lower for longer such that the banks are not willing to refinance their current debt or provide adequate financing to meet production’s needs. As a ripple effect, we continue to hear stories of commodities based hedge funds closing down due to the rout in materials, metals, and oil. However, the idea that Oil could soon be bottoming is still lingering with credibility on the charts. The upcoming wildcard to all of this is the December 4th meeting where OPEC will make an announcement on production going forward with low prices where they are today.

After peaking out last week at $43.43bbl, the price has retreated but remains above the 13-DMA AT $41.68. If price can remain above the November low of $39.87, we will still hold out for a break above $43.43 to validate a breakout and the potential for a double-bottom price pattern. A double-bottom pattern is a reversal pattern that sees a second price failure within the price range of the first bounce. Given the August 24th range of $40.45bbl-$39.87 (red oval), we’ve currently met that requirement. What is currently missing is a breakout to the upside. The key level to validate the breakout is also the R1 Resistance level. Should any of the fundamental data bring out weakness in the US Dollar, which is inversely correlated to US Oil, we may soon turn our attention to the R2 Weekly pivot that currently sits higher near $45bbl. Also, FXCM's trading book, used as a sentiment reading, is also showing that clients are now net-short, whch can, but not necessarily does precede higher prices are on the horizon. We use our SSI as a contrarian indicator to price action, and the fact that the majority of traders are selling gives a signal that US Oil may continue higher.

RSI continues to show us that a strong move higher could be underway, which is helpful because momentum can be seen as a leading indicator. Currently, the recovery of the mid-November lows have been mild, but the small victory is that recent dollar strength and macroeconomic announcement haven’t dragged the price lower. Given the interest in upside, a clear breakout could be aggressive. Any break below the mid-November low would immediately send focus lower towards the August 24th low, followed by the $35bbl region. T.Y.

We hope you enjoyed this short-term Oil Outlook, be sure to sign up for our free oil guide here.

WTI Crude Oil Price Forecast: Double-Bottom Pattern Favored Above $43.43

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

DISCLOSURES