News & Analysis at your fingertips.

We use a range of cookies to give you the best possible browsing experience. By continuing to use this website, you agree to our use of cookies.
You can learn more about our cookie policy here, or by following the link at the bottom of any page on our site.

0

Notifications

Notifications below are based on filters which can be adjusted via Economic and Webinar Calendar pages.

Live Webinar

Live Webinar Events

0

Economic Calendar

Economic Calendar Events

0
Free Trading Guides
Subscribe
Please try again
EUR/USD
Bullish
Oil - US Crude
Bullish
Wall Street
Mixed
Gold
Mixed
GBP/USD
Mixed
USD/JPY
Mixed
More View more
Real Time News
  • Gold Price Forecast: Dovish FOMC Could Underpin Bullion Ahead of NFP - https://www.dailyfx.com/forex/fundamental/forecast/weekly/chf/2020/11/27/Gold-Price-Forecast-Dovish-FOMC-Could-Underpin-Bullion-Ahead-of-NFP.html?CHID=9&QPID=917708&utm_source=Twitter&utm_medium=Moss&utm_campaign=twr #Gold #XAUUSD $GOLD $GLD https://t.co/N9ChZOqSdy
  • Forex Update: As of 21:00, these are your best and worst performers based on the London trading schedule: 🇪🇺EUR: 0.42% 🇦🇺AUD: 0.35% 🇳🇿NZD: 0.30% 🇨🇦CAD: 0.20% 🇯🇵JPY: 0.16% 🇬🇧GBP: -0.33% View the performance of all markets via https://www.dailyfx.com/forex-rates#currencies https://t.co/4uyJxc09OH
  • Commodities Update: As of 21:00, these are your best and worst performers based on the London trading schedule: Oil - US Crude: 1.48% Gold: -1.28% Silver: -2.80% View the performance of all markets via https://www.dailyfx.com/forex-rates#commodities https://t.co/pbfmvnsvuu
  • IG Client Sentiment Update: Our data shows the vast majority of traders in Ripple are long at 93.65%, while traders in France 40 are at opposite extremes with 78.02%. See the summary chart below and full details and charts on DailyFX: https://www.dailyfx.com/sentiment https://t.co/NL3bVphnYH
  • Indices Update: As of 21:00, these are your best and worst performers based on the London trading schedule: FTSE 100: 0.64% Germany 30: 0.04% US 500: 0.00% Wall Street: 0.00% France 40: -0.02% View the performance of all markets via https://www.dailyfx.com/forex-rates#indices https://t.co/uZ1HjcIJ4q
  • GBP/USD continues to fail around the 1.3400 level and is unlikely to make a confirmed break higher ahead of any trade talk confirmation. Get your $GBPUSD technical analysis from @nickcawley1 here:https://t.co/EWLFXK1q3q https://t.co/4XSSNxobMo
  • The Gold price sell-off has broken below key technical barriers and leaves the outlook for XAU/USD weighted to the downside heading into the close of the month. Get your $XAUUSD technical analysis from @MBForex here:https://t.co/3YLcAFlr5f https://t.co/1uFb9UkDvV
  • Commodities Update: As of 19:00, these are your best and worst performers based on the London trading schedule: Oil - US Crude: 1.48% Gold: -1.28% Silver: -2.80% View the performance of all markets via https://www.dailyfx.com/forex-rates#commodities https://t.co/OvThGydQBs
  • IG Client Sentiment Update: Our data shows the vast majority of traders in Ripple are long at 93.65%, while traders in France 40 are at opposite extremes with 78.02%. See the summary chart below and full details and charts on DailyFX: https://www.dailyfx.com/sentiment https://t.co/Yq6wLxhblV
  • Vaccine Optimism Sparks 28% Increase in Oil Prices. Get your #crudeoil market update from @JMcQueenFX here:https://t.co/F3AlSkniXk https://t.co/qevY4Gh6o9
WTI Crude Oil Price Forecast: Saudi Statement Give Bulls Hope

WTI Crude Oil Price Forecast: Saudi Statement Give Bulls Hope

2015-11-23 21:56:00
Tyler Yell, CMT, Currency Strategist
Share:

To receive Tyler’s analysis directly via email, please SIGN UP HERE

Talking Points:

  • Crude Oil Technical Strategy: Awaiting Affirmed Breakout Before Buying
  • Inability To Gain Traction Below $40 May Show Exhaustion
  • USD & Supply Inventory Would Likely Align With Price Breakout

Regardless of US Dollar strength, which is inversely correlated to WTI Crude Oil, the price of Oil struggles to push below $40bbl. On Monday, news surfaced that Saudi Arabia was willing to cooperate with Non-OPEC Countries. Translation to the market was that they could potentially stop pumping record volumes that are keeping inventories so high and depressing prices. This was interpreted as bullish news for Oil. Interestingly, this statement came at a time when Oil is appearing to be exhausted on the downside. This view is coming from the fact that Oil has traded within the August 24th range of $37.37-$40.45 for multiple days, but has been unable push substantially lower. This development, or lack thereof, does give bulls hope. However, the US dollar will continue to be a headwind for the bullish view of Oil as it sits supported above the weekly pivot near the 12,150 level.

The $40.00 level provides the first of multiple levels of support in the upper $30s for US Crude Oil. Last week’s candle did close in the black, so we’ll look to see if momentum can build this week . You’ll notice on the chart that the $40 level is known as an equal wave level (c=a in price). Price action around an equal wave can tell technical traders a lot. First and foremost, a move higher off equal wave support can signal that a corrective move is done, and a full retracement could be in store, which would take us above $50bbl. On the other hand, a strong break through an equal wave level, $40.00 on Oil, would argue for an impulsive decline to and likely through the August 24th low of $37.37. Most targets on an extending move lower focus on the lower $30 range to upper $20 range. A bullish development would first be validated on a daily close above $42.76, which was Friday’s high. Further resistance is seen at the Weekly R2 near $44.30, which was also around jereSeptember’s price support.

Momentum is often seen as a leading indicator, and momentum on the downside has all but evaporated on Oil, which is another positive development for the bulls. RSI(5) is showing bullish divergence off of channel support. For now, we’ll focus on price remaining above the weekly pivot and look for further bullish signs to materialize from here. While the credit may be given to the Saudi’s if a rally materializes, it’s good to know there was a strong technical foundation for a move higher before they agreed to “cooperate." T.Y.

We hope you enjoyed this short-term Oil Outlook, be sure to sign up for our free oil guide here.

WTI Crude Oil Price Forecast: Saudi Statement Give Bulls Hope

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

DISCLOSURES