News & Analysis at your fingertips.

We use a range of cookies to give you the best possible browsing experience. By continuing to use this website, you agree to our use of cookies.
You can learn more about our cookie policy here, or by following the link at the bottom of any page on our site.

0

Notifications

Notifications below are based on filters which can be adjusted via Economic and Webinar Calendar pages.

Live Webinar

Live Webinar Events

0

Economic Calendar

Economic Calendar Events

0
Free Trading Guides
Subscribe
Please try again
EUR/USD
Bullish
Oil - US Crude
Mixed
Wall Street
Bullish
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
Gold
Bearish
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
GBP/USD
Bullish
USD/JPY
Bearish
More View more
Real Time News
  • The New Zealand Dollar looks poised to extend its push higher against its haven-associated counterparts on robust economic data and a less dovish stance from the RBNZ. Get your $NZD market update from @DanielGMoss here:https://t.co/vytr4OR1Jy https://t.co/qWGrrAmsYN
  • New Zealand new home lending increases 6.3% MoM to a record NZ$7.78B - BBG $NZDUSD
  • If you missed today's session on IGCS where I discussed #DowJones, #SP500, #CrudeOil, $GBPUSD and #Gold prices, check out the recording on YouTube here - https://t.co/smORERZuGX
  • Wall Street Futures Update: Dow Jones (+0.437%) S&P 500 (+0.468%) Nasdaq 100 (+0.706%) [delayed] -BBG
  • #Copper extending gains to highest since 2014 in London -BBG
  • Hang Seng Index (HSI) has likely broken a key resistance level of 26,840, propelled by financial stocks: - HSBC (+5.28%) - Standard Chartered (+3.59%) - Ping An Insurance (+2.45%) https://t.co/XBv5In1NJ5
  • Japanese PM Suga says Japan doing everything it can to protect jobs - BBG
  • The Swiss Franc may continue higher against the US Dollar as technical pressure favors USD/CHF bears..Get your $USDCHF market update from @FxWestwater here:https://t.co/yqJbbhAWiu https://t.co/wMZn4SDCp8
  • Precious Metals Technical Analysis: #Gold and #Silver Rebound at Hand? - https://www.dailyfx.com/forex/technical/home/analysis/xau-usd/2020/11/25/Precious-Metals-Technical-Analysis-Gold-and-Silver-Rebound-at-Hand--.html?CHID=9&QPID=917708&utm_source=Twitter&utm_medium=Moss&utm_campaign=twr $GLD $SLVR https://t.co/wHwsO23TLu
  • Currency traders may eye US PCE inflation data today for clues about continuous rising price levels and how it may impact the Fed’s monetary decisions. Find out more on the DailyFX economic calendar. https://www.dailyfx.com/economic-calendar#today https://t.co/jlmSkHmhE0
Crude Oil Price Forecast: Channel Floor Sees Bullish Outside Day

Crude Oil Price Forecast: Channel Floor Sees Bullish Outside Day

2015-11-16 20:15:00
Tyler Yell, CMT, Currency Strategist
Share:

To receive Tyler’s analysis directly via email, please SIGN UP HERE

Talking Points:

  • Crude Oil Technical Strategy: Waiting to Sell On Strength
  • Entering Idea Zone For a Bounce, Working on Bullish Key Day
  • Sustainability of Upside on Bounce Is In Doubt

Late Monday, WTI Crude Oil bounced off key support to stage an attempt on a Bullish Key Day. A Bullish Key Day happens when a daily candle shows a low below the prior day’s low, yet closes above the prior day’s high. In other words, price action completely engulfs the prior day and closing above the prior day’s high signals that sellers were nowhere to be found into the close. The rout in Oil had extended to 8 straight days going back to November 4th, the longest such strength since July 2014. Any subsequent rally in Oil will have levels of resistance to break through before a serious rally is considered, and of the firmest levels to focus on will be the November 4th high of $48.33bb. Another reason to doubt a serious rally at present is due to the big picture for continued strength in the US Dollar. The US Dollar has marched higher since October 15th and until support breaks for the US Dollar the August 24th lows could come into view very soon for Oil.

Over the years, I’ve gained a fondness for looking to reversals within the price range of an extreme day. Today, the low in Crude Oil was 40.04. On August 24th, the day we printed a YTD low in oil (and many other assets), the price ranged from $37.73-$40.45bbl. Within the August 24th, price range aligns two key levels as per Fibonacci ratio analysis very close to each other that stood out on the crude oil price chart. Both levels, the 78.6% Fibonacci Retracement Support and the Fibonacci Expansion from October & November extremes on WTI / Crude Oil of the August-October range sits at 40.00-40.54. Should a Bullish Key Day materialize near these levels, we’ll look at the short-term resistance of $42.57, the October 27th low followed by $43.81, the Weekly R1 Pivot.

Even a bullish key day in and of itself does not guarantee a bullish cycle is underway on Crude; it would need to be confirmed with other correlated markets joining along to increase credibility. We recently noted that extended on the downside isn’t the equivalent to a buy signal unless you’re day trading. In aggressive bear markets, which the last year of price action would qualify for, rallies are better treated as selling opportunities with a better risk-reward ratio than was previously available. However, a break above noted resistance would favor a retest of the November high of $48.33 over the August low of $37.73. T.Y.

We hope you enjoyed this short-term Oil Outlook, be sure to sign up for our free oil guide here.

Crude Oil Price Forecast: Channel Floor Sees Bullish Outside Day

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

DISCLOSURES