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WTI Crude Oil Price Forecast: 2-Month Closing High Turns Focus on $50

WTI Crude Oil Price Forecast: 2-Month Closing High Turns Focus on $50

Tyler Yell, CMT, Currency Strategist


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Talking Points:

  • Crude Oil Technical Strategy: USD Weakness Preceded Breakout
  • WTI / Crude Oil Showing Overbought Readings Intro Resistance
  • Support Moved Up Toward $45.71bbl

Without a clear turnaround in the demand and supply imbalance for Oil, there was seen as only one thing that could give Oil a lift. The one thing is a weak USDollar, and that’s exactly what appears to be driving this latest surge back toward $50 in crude. While eyes were on Triangle support of $43.64, Crude was making a break higher a la the late-August run-up. If the USDollar makes another significant push away from the March 13th, 2015 range of 12,064-12,149, then a sustained move higher could be underway.

The technical outlook for crude oil now focused on the higher-low pivot of $45.71 holding. An elongated triangle that took all of September to complete seems to have ended, which opens the door for a resumption of the move off of $37.81 to resume. Currently, resistance stands at the August 31st high of $49.49 followed by the zone of multiple 61.8% Fibonacci targets of $51.10-$53.10. The 200-day moving average sits around this zone as well around $51.07.

The 5% rise on Tuesday opens the door for a retracement where the next potential trade may lie. Focus should turn to short-term support holding at $45.71 and resistance at $49.49 breaking. The target on a break of resistance looks to tackle the $51-53 zone before more advanced targets are considered. Going forward, it’s worth noting that USDollar will be critical in the path for in addition to other assets. T.Y.

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