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Crude Oil Price: Sharp Upward Surge Unlikely to Last

Crude Oil Price: Sharp Upward Surge Unlikely to Last

2015-09-01 09:44:00
Ilya Spivak, Head Strategist, APAC
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Talking Points:

  • Crude Oil Prices Soar, Erasing 5 Weeks of Losses in Just 5 Days
  • Speculative Positioning Data Hints Rebound Likely Corrective

Crude oil prices continue to push higher as expected after taking out resistance capping gains and guiding the trend lower since late June. The aggressive upward push has brought prices to level unseen in a month, erasing in five weeks of losses in just five days of gains.

Looking ahead, near-term resistance is now at 55.90, the 50% Fibonacci retracement, with a break above that on a daily closing basis exposing the 61.8% level at 59.13. Alternatively, a move back below the 38.2% Fib at 52.67 opens the door for a challenge of the 23.6% retracement at 48.67.

While the move higher is enjoying strong momentum, lasting follow-through seems questionable. The latest edition of the CFTC’s Commitment of Traders report shows last week’s pickup in net-long positioning came primarily from the unwinding of shorts rather than new buying interest. This paints current gains as corrective in the context of a longer-term descent rather than a sustained bullish trend change.

Crude Oil Price: Sharp Upward Surge Unlikely to Last

KEY UPCOMING EVENT RISK:

01 SEP 2015, 14:00 GMT – US ISM Manufacturing (AUG) – Expected: 52.5, Prev: 52.7

01 SEP 2015, 17:10 GMT – Fed’s Rosengren to Speak on US Economic Outlook

02 SEP 2015, 14:30 GMT – DOE US Crude Oil Inventories – Expected: n/a, Prev: -5452K

02 SEP 2015, 18:00 GMT – Federal Reserve Publishes Beige Book

03 SEP 2015, 11:45 GMT – ECB Interest Rate Decision – Expected: 0.05%, Prev: 0.05%

04 SEP 2015, 12:30 GMT – US Nonfarm Payrolls (AUG) – Expected: 220K, Prev: 215K

--- Written by Ilya Spivak, Currency Strategist for DailyFX.com

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