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Talking Points:

  • Crude Oil Prices Break Eight-Day Losing Streak Above $42 Figure
  • Dominant Trend Bias Still Bearish Absent Defined Reversal Signal

Crude oil prices snapped an eight-day losing streak, pausing to consolidate above the $42/barrel figure having broken below January’s lows. The Brent contract is now hovering at the lowest levels since March 2012. The extent to which the slowdown may precede a rebound is unclear however absent the formation of a defined reversal signal. In the interim, the dominant directional bias remains bearish.

Near-termsupport is at 42.36, the 76.4% Fibonacci expansion, with a break below that on a daily closing basis exposing the 100% level at 39.67. Alternatively, a reversal above the 61.8% Fib at 44.03 opens the door for a challenge of the 45.17-38 area, marked by support-turned-resistance at the January 13 low and the 50% expansion.

KEY UPCOMING EVENT RISK:

26 AUG 2015, 12:30 GMT – US Durable Goods Orders (JUL) – Expected: -0.4%, Prev: 3.4%

26 AUG 2015, 14:30 GMT – US DOE Crude Oil Inventories – Expected: n/a, Prev: 2620K

27 AUG 2015, 12:30 GMT – US GDP (Annualized) (2Q S) – Expected: 3.2%, Prev: 2.3%

28 AUG 2015, 05:45 GMT – Swiss GDP (QoQ) (2Q) – Expected: -0.1%, Prev: -0.2%

28 AUG 2015, 05:45 GMT – UK GDP (QoQ) (2Q P) – Expected: 0.7%, Prev: 0.7%

28 AUG 2015, 12:30 GMT – US Core PCE (YoY) (JUL) – Expected: 1.3%, Prev: 1.3%

Crude Oil Price: Eight-Day Losing Streak Broken

--- Written by Ilya Spivak, Currency Strategist for DailyFX.com

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