Crude Oil Tries to Resume Advance, SPX 500 Struggles at Resistance

2015-05-13 08:41:00 Ilya Spivak

Talking Points:

US Dollar Sets 4-Month Low, Threatens to Break Range Floor
S&P 500 Continues Struggle at Three-Month Range Resistance
Gold Stuck in Familiar Range, Crude Oil Trying to Rise Anew

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US DOLLAR TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – Prices are threatening to break below April’s swing bottom after touching the lowest level in nearly four months. Near-term support is in the 11736-7 area (February 6 low, 38.2% Fibonacci expansion), with a break below that on a daily closing basis exposing the 50% level at 11688. Alternatively, a move above trend line resistance at 11801 clears the way for a test of the May 5 high at 11899.

Daily Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope

** The Dow Jones FXCM US Dollar Index and the Mirror Trader USD basket are not the same product.

S&P 500 TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – Prices are cautiously attempting to edge lower as expected after putting in a Bearish Engulfing candlestick pattern, warning that a double top may be taking shape. A break below the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement at 2065.70 exposes the 50% level at 2047.10. Key resistance remains at 2119.40, the February 25 high.

Daily Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope

GOLD TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – Prices continue to oscillate in a choppy range around the $1200/oz figure. A break below range support at 1178.09 exposes the 38.2% Fibonacci expansion at 1161.16. Range resistance remains at 1214.64.

Daily Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope

CRUDE OIL TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – Prices are attempting to build higher anew having found support above the $64.00 figure. A daily close above the 23.6% Fibonacci expansion at 68.23 exposes the May 6 high at 69.60, followed by the 38.2% level at 70.72. Alternatively, a turn below the 14.6% Fib at 66.70 targets the May 8 low at 64.21.