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Crude Oil May Turn Lower, SPX 500 May Have Set a Double Top

Crude Oil May Turn Lower, SPX 500 May Have Set a Double Top

2015-04-30 07:12:00
Ilya Spivak, Head Strategist, APAC
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Talking Points:

  • US Dollar Sinks to Lowest Level in Nearly Three Months
  • S&P 500 Double Top May Be Established Below 2200.00
  • Gold Stalls Above $1200/oz, Crude Oil May Turn Lower

Can’t access the Dow Jones FXCM US Dollar Index? Try the USD basket on Mirror Trader. **

US DOLLAR TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – Prices declined for a sixth consecutive day, dropping to the weakest level in nearly three months. Near-term support is at 11754, the 123.6% Fibonacci expansion, with a break below that on a daily closing basis exposing the 138.2% level at 11719. Alternatively, a rebound above the 100% Fib at 11809 clears the way for a test of the 76.4% threshold at 11864.

Crude Oil May Turn Lower, SPX 500 May Have Set a Double Top

Daily Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope

** The Dow Jones FXCM US Dollar Index and the Mirror Trader USD basket are not the same product.

S&P 500 TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – Prices declined as expected after putting in a Bearish Engulfing candlestick pattern, hinting a double top is forming at 2119.40 (February 25 high). Negative RSI divergence bolsters the case for a downside scenario. A break below the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement at 2093.50 exposes the 50% level at 2083.50. Alternatively, a move above trend line resistance at 2108.50 targets 2119.40 anew.

Crude Oil May Turn Lower, SPX 500 May Have Set a Double Top

Daily Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope

GOLD TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – Prices are attempting to build upward anew after reclaiming a foothold above the $1200/oz figure. A break above the April 28 high at 1215.00 exposes the April 6 top at 1224.15. Alternatively, a turn below falling channel top resistance-turned-support at 1197.38 targets the March 31 low at 1178.38.

Crude Oil May Turn Lower, SPX 500 May Have Set a Double Top

Daily Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope

CRUDE OIL TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – Negative RSI divergence hints prices may be readying to turn lower anew. A break below the 14.6% Fibonacci retracement at 63.53 exposes the 23.6% level at 61.60. Alternatively, a move above the 76.4% Fib expansion at 66.16 targets the 100% threshold at 70.36.

Crude Oil May Turn Lower, SPX 500 May Have Set a Double Top

Daily Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope

--- Written by Ilya Spivak, Currency Strategist for DailyFX.com

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