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Gold Drops to 4-Week Low, SPX 500 Stalls at Monthly Range High Again

Gold Drops to 4-Week Low, SPX 500 Stalls at Monthly Range High Again

Ilya Spivak, Head Strategist, APAC

Talking Points:

  • US Dollar Continues to Tread Water Below Six Year High
  • S&P 500 Stalls at Familiar Monthly Range Top Once Again
  • Crude Oil Stalling, Gold Sinks to Lowest Level in 4 Weeks

Can’t access the Dow Jones FXCM US Dollar Index? Try the USD basket on Mirror Trader. **

US DOLLAR TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – Prices may be preparing to decline after prices put in a bearish Evening Star candlestick pattern. Negative RSI divergence reinforces the case for a downside scenario. Near-term trend line support is in the 11740-73 area, marked by a rising trend line and the 14.6% Fibonacci retracement, with a break below that on a daily closing basis exposing the 23.6% level at 11653. Alternatively, a push above the 11854-76 zone (March 2009 high, 14.6% Fib expansion) clears the way for a test of the 23.6% threshold at 11963.

Gold Drops to 4-Week Low, SPX 500 Stalls at Monthly Range High Again

Daily Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope

** The Dow Jones FXCM US Dollar Index and the Mirror Trader USD basket are not the same product.

S&P 500 TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – Prices are in consolidation mode after declining as expected following the appearance of a bearish Evening Star candlestick pattern. A daily close below the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement at 2028.00 exposes the 1982.70-88.00 area marked by the 38.2% level and a rising trend line. Alternatively, a push above the January 9 high at 2068.60 targets the December 29 top at 2092.60.

Gold Drops to 4-Week Low, SPX 500 Stalls at Monthly Range High Again

Daily Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope

GOLD TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – Prices resumed moving lower anew, sliding to the weakest level in four weeks. Sellers now aim at 1220.58, the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement, with a break below that exposing the intersection of the 76.4% level and a rising trend line at 1200.05. Alternatively, a move above the 50% Fib at 1237.18 targets the 38.2% retracement at 1253.77.

Gold Drops to 4-Week Low, SPX 500 Stalls at Monthly Range High Again

Daily Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope

CRUDE OIL TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – Prices pushed higher following a prolonged period of consolidation after bottoming as expected above the $45.00/barrel figure. A daily close above the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement at 59.08 exposes the 50% level at 63.38. Alternatively, a reversal below the 23.6% Fib at 53.77 targets the 14.6% retracement at 50.49.

Gold Drops to 4-Week Low, SPX 500 Stalls at Monthly Range High Again

Daily Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope

--- Written by Ilya Spivak, Currency Strategist for DailyFX.com

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