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Crude Oil May Be Bottoming, SPX 500 Threatens Monthly Uptrend

Crude Oil May Be Bottoming, SPX 500 Threatens Monthly Uptrend

Ilya Spivak, Head Strategist, APAC

Talking Points:

  • US Dollar Waiting for Follow-Through on Reversal Signal
  • S&P 500 Drops for Fourth Day, Threatens Monthly Uptrend
  • Gold Stalls at December Top, Crude Oil May Be Bottoming

Can’t access the Dow Jones FXCM US Dollar Index? Try the USD basket on Mirror Trader. **

US DOLLAR TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – Prices look likely to continue downward following the appearance of a bearish Evening Star candle pattern having reversed as expected. A daily close below the 14.6% Fibonacci retracementat 11599 exposes the 23.6% level at 11527. Alternatively, a reversal above the 23.6% Fib expansion at 11699 opens the door for a challenge of the 38.2% threshold at 11796.

Crude Oil May Be Bottoming, SPX 500 Threatens Monthly Uptrend

Daily Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope

** The Dow Jones FXCM US Dollar Index and the Mirror Trader USD basket are not the same product.

S&P 500 TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – Prices declined as expected after putting in a bearish Evening Star candlestick pattern. A secondary top may now be in place as a corrective bounce is capped by a Dark Cloud Cover formation. Breaking below rising trend line support at 2012.20 on a daily closing basis exposes the 38.2% level at 1988.00. Alternatively, a reversal back above the 23.6% Fib at 2028.00 aims for the January 9 high at 2068.60.

Crude Oil May Be Bottoming, SPX 500 Threatens Monthly Uptrend

Daily Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope

GOLD TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – Prices put in a pair of Shooting Star candlesticks below resistance marked by the 61.8% Fibonacci expansion at 1233.62, hinting a pullback may be ahead. A break below the 50% level at 1220.88 exposes for the 38.2% Fib at 1208.13. Alternatively, a push above 1233.62 targets the 1249.39-55.20 area (76.4% Fib, October 21 high).

Crude Oil May Be Bottoming, SPX 500 Threatens Monthly Uptrend

Daily Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope

CRUDE OIL TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – Prices rebounded as expected, completing a bullish Morning Star candlestick pattern to hint a near-term bottom may be in place. A break above 50.49, the intersection of falling channel top resistance and the 14.6% Fibonacci expansion, exposes the 23.6% level at 53.77.Near-term support is at 45.17, the January 13 low.

Crude Oil May Be Bottoming, SPX 500 Threatens Monthly Uptrend

Daily Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope

--- Written by Ilya Spivak, Currency Strategist for DailyFX.com

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DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

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