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Gold Reversal May Be at Hand, Crude Oil Back on the Defensive

Gold Reversal May Be at Hand, Crude Oil Back on the Defensive

2014-11-27 04:12:00
Ilya Spivak, Head Strategist, APAC
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Talking Points:

  • US Dollar Recoils from 5-Year High, Drops Most in 3 Weeks
  • S&P 500 Renews Advance But Key Resistance Looms Ahead
  • Crude Oil Back on the Defensive, Gold Starting to Turn Over

Can’t access the Dow Jones FXCM US Dollar Index? Try the USD basket on Mirror Trader. **

US DOLLAR TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – Prices recoiled downward after hitting a five-year high, issuing the largest daily decline in three weeks. Near-term support is at 11306, the 14.6% Fibonacci retracement, with a break below that on a daily closing basis exposing the 23.6% level at 11265. Alternatively, a turn above the 38.2% Fib expansion at 11374 opens the door for a challenge of the 50% threshold at 11422.

Gold Reversal May Be at Hand, Crude Oil Back on the Defensive

Daily Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

** The Dow Jones FXCM US Dollar Index and the Mirror Trader USD basket are not the same product.

S&P 500 TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – Prices advanced to another record high after a brief pause, testing the upper boundary of their near-term uptrend. A daily close above the 38.2% Fibonacci expansion at 2081.20 exposes the 50% level at 2105.60. Alternatively, a move below the 23.6% Fib at 2051.00 targets the 2022.10-32 areamarked by the 14.6% expansion and the September 19 high.

Gold Reversal May Be at Hand, Crude Oil Back on the Defensive

Daily Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

GOLD TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – Prices are carving out a bearish Rising Wedge chart formation, hinting a move lower may be ahead. A daily close below the wedge floor at 1201.56 exposes the 1178.86-80.84 area (December 2013 low, 23.6% Fibonacci retracement). Alternatively, a push above the 1212.23-16.81 zone (wedge top, 38.2% level) targets a falling trend line set from early June, now at 1223.87.

Gold Reversal May Be at Hand, Crude Oil Back on the Defensive

Daily Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

CRUDE OIL TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – Prices turned lower anew to test support in the 75.90-76.74 area, marked by the 14.6% Fibonacci expansion and the November 14 low. A daily close below this barrier exposes the 23.6% level at 72.40. Alternatively, a reversal above falling trend line resistance at 80.12 targets the November 21 high at 81.59.

Gold Reversal May Be at Hand, Crude Oil Back on the Defensive

Daily Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

--- Written by Ilya Spivak, Currency Strategist for DailyFX.com

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