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Gold Reversal May Be at Hand, Crude Oil Back on the Defensive

Gold Reversal May Be at Hand, Crude Oil Back on the Defensive

Ilya Spivak, Head Strategist, APAC

Talking Points:

  • US Dollar Recoils from 5-Year High, Drops Most in 3 Weeks
  • S&P 500 Renews Advance But Key Resistance Looms Ahead
  • Crude Oil Back on the Defensive, Gold Starting to Turn Over

Can’t access the Dow Jones FXCM US Dollar Index? Try the USD basket on Mirror Trader. **

US DOLLAR TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – Prices recoiled downward after hitting a five-year high, issuing the largest daily decline in three weeks. Near-term support is at 11306, the 14.6% Fibonacci retracement, with a break below that on a daily closing basis exposing the 23.6% level at 11265. Alternatively, a turn above the 38.2% Fib expansion at 11374 opens the door for a challenge of the 50% threshold at 11422.

Gold Reversal May Be at Hand, Crude Oil Back on the Defensive

Daily Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

** The Dow Jones FXCM US Dollar Index and the Mirror Trader USD basket are not the same product.

S&P 500 TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – Prices advanced to another record high after a brief pause, testing the upper boundary of their near-term uptrend. A daily close above the 38.2% Fibonacci expansion at 2081.20 exposes the 50% level at 2105.60. Alternatively, a move below the 23.6% Fib at 2051.00 targets the 2022.10-32 areamarked by the 14.6% expansion and the September 19 high.

Gold Reversal May Be at Hand, Crude Oil Back on the Defensive

Daily Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

GOLD TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – Prices are carving out a bearish Rising Wedge chart formation, hinting a move lower may be ahead. A daily close below the wedge floor at 1201.56 exposes the 1178.86-80.84 area (December 2013 low, 23.6% Fibonacci retracement). Alternatively, a push above the 1212.23-16.81 zone (wedge top, 38.2% level) targets a falling trend line set from early June, now at 1223.87.

Gold Reversal May Be at Hand, Crude Oil Back on the Defensive

Daily Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

CRUDE OIL TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – Prices turned lower anew to test support in the 75.90-76.74 area, marked by the 14.6% Fibonacci expansion and the November 14 low. A daily close below this barrier exposes the 23.6% level at 72.40. Alternatively, a reversal above falling trend line resistance at 80.12 targets the November 21 high at 81.59.

Gold Reversal May Be at Hand, Crude Oil Back on the Defensive

Daily Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

--- Written by Ilya Spivak, Currency Strategist for DailyFX.com

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