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Crude Oil Trying to Bounce, US Dollar May Correct Downward

Crude Oil Trying to Bounce, US Dollar May Correct Downward

2014-11-21 03:01:00
Ilya Spivak, Head Strategist, APAC
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Talking Points:

  • US Dollar Technical Setup Warning of a Downswing Once Again
  • S&P 500 Consolidating Move to Record High Earlier This Week
  • Gold in Digestion Mode Sub-$1200, Crude Oil Trying to Bounce

Can’t access the Dow Jones FXCM US Dollar Index? Try the USD basket on Mirror Trader. **

US DOLLAR TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – Prices may be topping having hit a five-year high following the formation of a Shooting Star candlestick. Negative RSI divergence bolsters the case for a downside scenario. Near-term support is at 11278, the 14.6% Fibonacci expansion, with a break below that on a daily closing basis exposing the November 17 low at 11219. Alternatively, a turn above the 23.6% level at 11315 opens the door for a challenge of the 38.2% Fib at 11374.

Crude Oil Trying to Bounce, US Dollar May Correct Downward

Daily Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

** The Dow Jones FXCM US Dollar Index and the Mirror Trader USD basket are not the same product.

S&P 500 TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – Prices paused to consolidate after clearing resistance at 2051.00, the 23.6% Fibonacci expansion, to expose the 38.2% level at 2081.20. A further push beyond that targets the 50% Fib at 2105.60. Alternatively, a reversal back below 2051.00 on a daily closing basis targets the 2022.10-32.30 area marked by the 14.6% expansion and the September 19 high.

Crude Oil Trying to Bounce, US Dollar May Correct Downward

Daily Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

GOLD TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – Prices paused to digest gains after hitting a three-week high above the $1200/oz figure. A daily close above the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement at 1212.23 exposes the 1229.19-37.59 area marked by a falling trend line and the 50% level. Alternatively, a reversal below the 1178.86-80.84 zone (December 2013 low, 23.6% Fib) targets the 14.6% retracement at 1161.49.

Crude Oil Trying to Bounce, US Dollar May Correct Downward

Daily Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

CRUDE OIL TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – Prices may be gearing up for a recovery after putting in a bullish Piercing Line candlestick pattern. A break above the 14.6% Fibonacci retracement at 79.81 exposes the 23.6% level at 81.71. Near-term support is at 76.74, the November 14 low.

Crude Oil Trying to Bounce, US Dollar May Correct Downward

Daily Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

--- Written by Ilya Spivak, Currency Strategist for DailyFX.com

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