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Crude Oil Drops to 4-Year Low, US Dollar Vulnerable to Downswing

Crude Oil Drops to 4-Year Low, US Dollar Vulnerable to Downswing

2014-11-12 03:08:00
Ilya Spivak, Head Strategist, APAC
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Talking Points:

  • US Dollar Chart Setup Continues to Hint at Downswing Ahead
  • S&P 500 Upward Drift Seems to Have Some Space to Continue
  • Gold in Consolidation Mode, Crude Oil Sinks to Four-Year Low

Can’t access the Dow Jones FXCM US Dollar Index? Try the USD basket on Mirror Trader. **

US DOLLAR TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – Prices appear vulnerable to a correction lower having produced a bearish Dark Cloud Cover candlestick pattern. A daily close below the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement at 11211 exposes the 11143-55 area marked by the October 3 high and the 38.2% level. Alternatively, a turn above the 50% Fib expansion at 11295 opens the door for a challenge of the 61.8% threshold at 11329.

Crude Oil Drops to 4-Year Low, US Dollar Vulnerable to Downswing

Daily Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

** The Dow Jones FXCM US Dollar Index and the Mirror Trader USD basket are not the same product.

S&P 500 TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – Prices pushed to another record high, with buyers now aiming to challenge resistance marked by the 23.6% Fibonacci expansion at 2051.00. A break above this barrier on a daily closing basis exposes the 38.2% level at 2081.20. Alternatively, a reversal below the 14.6% Fib at 2032.30 aims for resistance-turned-support at 2022.10, the September 19 high.

Crude Oil Drops to 4-Year Low, US Dollar Vulnerable to Downswing

Daily Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

GOLD TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – Prices turned lower anew after testing resistance in the 1178.86-80.84 area marked by the December 2013 low and the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement. Near-term support is at 1131.11, the 76.4% Fibonacci expansion, with a break below that on a daily closing basis exposing the 100% level at 1092.78. Alternatively, a push above resistance targets the 38.2% retracement at 1212.23.

Crude Oil Drops to 4-Year Low, US Dollar Vulnerable to Downswing

Daily Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

CRUDE OIL TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – Prices dropped to a new four-year low, with sellers testing support at 80.46 marked by the 50%Fibonacci expansion. A break below this barrier on a daily closing basis exposes the 61.8% level at 78.70. Alternatively, a turn back above the 38.2% Fib at 82.22 aims for the intersection of channel floor support-turned-resistance and the 23.6% expansion at 84.39.

Crude Oil Drops to 4-Year Low, US Dollar Vulnerable to Downswing

Daily Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

--- Written by Ilya Spivak, Currency Strategist for DailyFX.com

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