Crude Oil May Bounce at 17-Month Low, SPX 500 Avoids Breakdown

2014-09-16 05:08:00 Ilya Spivak, Head Strategist, APAC

Talking Points:

US Dollar Working to Secure on a 7th Consecutive Daily Advance
S&P 500 Dips to 1-Month Low But Manages to Avert a Breakdown
Crude Oil Technical Setup Hints at Rebound from 17-Month Low

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US DOLLAR TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – Prices appear poised to extend a rally set off from early July after narrowly clearing another resistance barrier.Near-term resistance is at 10919, the 50% Fibonacci expansion, with a break above that on a daily closing basis exposing the 61.8% level at 10966. Alternatively, a reversal back below the 38.2% Fib at 10871 opens the door for a challenge of the 23.6% expansion at 10812.

Daily Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

** The Dow Jones FXCM US Dollar Index and the Mirror Trader USD basket are not the same product.

S&P 500 TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – Prices a testing support at 1984.60, the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement. A break downward on a daily closing basis initially exposes the 38.2% level at 1967.30. Alternatively, a reversal above the September 3 high at 2012.60 targets the upper boundary of the index’s long-term uptrend at 2040.50.

Daily Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

GOLD TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – Prices are retesting support-turned-resistance at 1233.08, the 61.8% Fibonacci expansion. A daily close above this barrier exposes the 50% level at 1240.82. Alternatively, a turn below the 76.4% Fib at 1223.52 targets the 100% expansion at 1208.06.

Daily Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

CRUDE OIL TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – Prices put in a bullish Piercing Line candlestick pattern above support at 96.73, the mid-April 2013 low, hinting a move higher is ahead. Near-term resistance is at 99.47, the 14.6% Fibonacci retracement, with a break above that on a daily closing basis exposing the 23.6% level at 101.18.