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US Dollar Falters at 7-Month High, SPX 500 in a Holding Pattern

US Dollar Falters at 7-Month High, SPX 500 in a Holding Pattern

2014-09-04 06:30:00
Ilya Spivak, Head Strategist, APAC
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Talking Points:

  • US Dollar Falters at 7-Month High, Snaps Three-Day Win Streak
  • S&P 500 Locked in a Holding Pattern as Markets Await Catalyst
  • Crude Oil Chart Setup Hints at Bounce From $100 Level Ahead

Can’t access the Dow Jones FXCM US Dollar Index? Try the USD basket on Mirror Trader. **

US DOLLAR TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – Prices recoiled downward after putting the benchmark currency at the highest level in seven months. A daily close below the 76.4% Fibonacci expansion at 10657 exposes the 10629-35 area marked by a rising trend line and the 61.8% level. Alternatively, reversal above the 100% Fib at 10703 opens the door for a challenge of the 123.6% expansion at 10749.

US Dollar Falters at 7-Month High, SPX 500 in a Holding Pattern

Daily Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

** The Dow Jones FXCM US Dollar Index and the Mirror Trader USD basket are not the same product.

S&P 500 TECHNICAL ANALYSISPrices are stalling below the 61.8% Fibonacci expansionat 2006.80. A turn lower from here sees near-term support is in the 1985.30-91.40 area, marked by the July 24 high and the 50% level, with a break below that on a daily closing basis exposing the 38.2% Fib at 1963.70. Alternatively, a turn above 2006.80 targets channel floor support-turned-resistance at 2021.40, followed by the top of the index’s long-term uptrend and the 76.4% expansion in the 2032.00-33.40 area.

US Dollar Falters at 7-Month High, SPX 500 in a Holding Pattern

Daily Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

GOLD TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – Prices appear vulnerable to continued weakness after breaking below a rising trend line set from December 2013. A near-term bounce above the 38.2% Fibonacci expansion at 1268.56 sees the next layer of resistance at 1279.19, the intersection of the aforementioned trend line and the 23.6% level. Pushing further above that eyes the 14.6% Fib at 1285.75. Alternatively, a move below 1259.97 – marked by the 50% expansion and a falling channel floor – targets the 61.8% threshold at 1251.38.

US Dollar Falters at 7-Month High, SPX 500 in a Holding Pattern

Daily Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

CRUDE OIL TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – Prices put in a bullish Piercing Line candlestick pattern, hinting a rebound may be ahead. A break above the 14.6% Fibonacci retracement at 102.42 exposes the 23.6% level at 103.82. Alternatively, a move below the 99.91-100.15 area marked by the September 2 low and the 23.6% Fib expansion targets the 38.2% threshold at 97.77.

US Dollar Falters at 7-Month High, SPX 500 in a Holding Pattern

Daily Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

--- Written by Ilya Spivak, Currency Strategist for DailyFX.com

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