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Crude Oil Prices May Rebound After Sliding to a 14-Month Low

Crude Oil Prices May Rebound After Sliding to a 14-Month Low

2014-08-19 06:26:00
Ilya Spivak, Head Strategist, APAC
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Talking Points:

  • US Dollar Chart Setup Continues to Warn of Pullback Risk
  • S&P 500 Pushes Past Resistance, Setting Sights on July Top
  • Crude Oil May Rebound After Sliding to a 14-Month Low

Can’t access the Dow Jones FXCM US Dollar Index? Try the USD basket on Mirror Trader. **

US DOLLAR TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – Prices turned lower as expected, carving out a bearish Evening Star candlestick pattern and hinting at deeper pullback is ahead. Negative RSI divergence reinforces the case for weakness. Near-term support is at 10547, 14.6%Fibonacci retracement, with a daily close below that exposing the 23.6% level at 10528. Alternatively, a push above the 38.2% Fib expansion at 10582 clears the way for a test of the 50% threshold at 10606.

Crude Oil Prices May Rebound After Sliding to a 14-Month Low

Daily Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

** The Dow Jones FXCM US Dollar Index and the Mirror Trader USD basket are not the same product.

S&P 500 TECHNICAL ANALYSISPrices broke above the 38.2% Fibonacci expansion at 1963.70, exposing the 1985.30-91.40 area marked by the 50% level and the July 24 high. A further push beyond that aims for channel floor support-turned-resistance at 1997.20. Alternatively, a turn back below at 1963.70 targets the 23.6% Fib at 1937.10.

Crude Oil Prices May Rebound After Sliding to a 14-Month Low

Daily Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

GOLD TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – Prices turned lower anew, with sellers testing the 38.2% Fibonacci expansion at 1297.82. A break below this barrier on a daily closing basis exposes the 50% level at 1290.15. Alternatively, a reversal back above the 23.6% Fib at 1307.31 aims for the channel top at 1316.54.

Crude Oil Prices May Rebound After Sliding to a 14-Month Low

Daily Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

CRUDE OIL TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – Prices are testing support at 101.61, the 61.8% Fibonacci expansion, with a break below that on a daily closing basis exposing the 76.4% level at 99.96. Positive RSI divergence points to ebbing downside momentum however, warning a bounce may be ahead. A move above the 50% Fib at 102.94 targets the 104.13-28 area marked by a falling trend line and the 38.2% expansion.

Crude Oil Prices May Rebound After Sliding to a 14-Month Low

Daily Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

--- Written by Ilya Spivak, Currency Strategist for DailyFX.com

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