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US Dollar at Risk of Pullback, Crude Oil Chart Setup Hints at Bounce

US Dollar at Risk of Pullback, Crude Oil Chart Setup Hints at Bounce

2014-08-18 03:03:00
Ilya Spivak, Head Strategist, APAC
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Talking Points:

  • US Dollar May Drop Before Larger Advance Resumes Anew
  • S&P 500 Continues March Upward, Eyeing July Swing Top
  • Crude Oil Chart Setup Suggests a Rebound May Be Brewing

Can’t access the Dow Jones FXCM US Dollar Index? Try the USD basket on Mirror Trader. **

US DOLLAR TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – Prices turned lower as expected, completing a bearish Evening Star candlestick pattern and hinting at further losses ahead. Negative RSI divergence bolsters the case for a downward scenario. A daily close below the 14.6%Fibonacci retracement at 10547 exposes the 23.6% level at 10528. Alternatively, a move above the 38.2% Fib expansion at 10582 opens the door for a challenge of the 50% threshold at 10606.

US Dollar at Risk of Pullback, Crude Oil Chart Setup Hints at Bounce

Daily Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

** The Dow Jones FXCM US Dollar Index and the Mirror Trader USD basket are not the same product.

S&P 500 TECHNICAL ANALYSISPrices declined as expected after putting in a bearish Evening Star candlestick pattern. A bounce following a test of the 1900.00 figure sees prices aiming for resistance at 1968.40, the 76.4% Fibonacci retracement, with a close above that targeting the July 24 high at 1991.40. Alternatively, a turn below the 61.8% Fib at 1954.20 aims for the 50% retracement at 1942.80.

US Dollar at Risk of Pullback, Crude Oil Chart Setup Hints at Bounce

Daily Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

GOLD TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – Prices turned lower anew, with sellers testing the 38.2% Fibonacci expansion at 1297.82. A break below this barrier on a daily closing basis exposes the 50% level at 1290.15. Alternatively, a reversal back above the 23.6% Fib at 1307.31 aims for the channel top at 1316.54.

US Dollar at Risk of Pullback, Crude Oil Chart Setup Hints at Bounce

Daily Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

CRUDE OIL TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – Prices put in a bullish Piercing Line candlestick pattern, hinting a rebound is ahead. Near-term resistance is at 97.05, the 14.6% Fibonacci retracement. A daily close above this barrier exposes the 23.6% level at 98.17. Initial support is at 95.24, the August 14 low.

US Dollar at Risk of Pullback, Crude Oil Chart Setup Hints at Bounce

Daily Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

--- Written by Ilya Spivak, Currency Strategist for DailyFX.com

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