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US Dollar Stalls at 5-Month High, Crude Oil at Risk of Deeper Losses

US Dollar Stalls at 5-Month High, Crude Oil at Risk of Deeper Losses

Ilya Spivak, Head Strategist, APAC

Talking Points:

  • US Dollar Stalls at 5-Month High, Downswing Risk Remains
  • S&P 500 Recovery Continues as Buyers Aim for July Peak
  • Crude Oil at Risk of Deeper Losses on Trend Support Break

Can’t access the Dow Jones FXCM US Dollar Index? Try the USD basket on Mirror Trader. **

US DOLLAR TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – Prices Index continue to push higher having reversed upward as expected after putting in a Bullish Engulfing candlestick pattern. A daily close above the 38.2% Fibonacci expansion at 10582 exposes the 50% level at 10606. Negative RSI divergence warns a pullback may be around the corner. A turn below support at 10554, the 23.6% Fib, opens the door for a test of the 14.6% expansion at 10536.

US Dollar Stalls at 5-Month High, Crude Oil at Risk of Deeper Losses

Daily Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

** The Dow Jones FXCM US Dollar Index and the Mirror Trader USD basket are not the same product.

S&P 500 TECHNICAL ANALYSISPrices declined as expected after putting in a bearish Evening Star candlestick pattern with negative RSI divergence. A bounce following a test of the 1900.00 figure sees prices aiming for resistance at 1968.40, the 76.4% Fibonacci retracement, with a close above that targeting the July 24 high at 1991.40. Alternatively, a turn below the 61.8% Fib at 1954.20 aims for the 50% retracement at 1942.80.

US Dollar Stalls at 5-Month High, Crude Oil at Risk of Deeper Losses

Daily Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

GOLD TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – Prices launched higher as expected after putting in a bullish Piercing Line candlestick pattern. Resistance is now at 1320.12, the 38.2% Fibonacci expansion. A break above that on a daily closing basis exposes the 50% level at 1332.49. Alternatively, a reversal below the 23.6% Fib at 1304.81 clears the way for a test of the 14.6% expansion at 1295.37.

US Dollar Stalls at 5-Month High, Crude Oil at Risk of Deeper Losses

Daily Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

CRUDE OIL TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – Prices turned aggressively lower anew, taking out rising trend lien support set from June 2012. Sellers now aim to challenge the 38.2% Fibonacci expansion at 94.29, with a break below that exposing the 50% level at 92.97. Alternatively, a turn above the 23.6% Fib at 95.91 opens the door for a test of 96.91, the intersection of the trend line (now recast as resistance) and the 14.6% expansion.

US Dollar Stalls at 5-Month High, Crude Oil at Risk of Deeper Losses

Daily Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

--- Written by Ilya Spivak, Currency Strategist for DailyFX.com

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