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US Dollar Correction Risk Remains as Prices Touch 5-Month High

US Dollar Correction Risk Remains as Prices Touch 5-Month High

2014-08-14 07:13:00
Ilya Spivak, Head Strategist, APAC
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Talking Points:

  • US Dollar Strongest in 5 Months But Correction Risk Remains
  • S&P 500 Resumes Recovery, Advances to Hit a 2-Week High
  • Gold in Familiar Range, Crude Oil Awaiting Follow-Through

Can’t access the Dow Jones FXCM US Dollar Index? Try the USD basket on Mirror Trader. **

US DOLLAR TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – Prices Index continue to push higher having reversed upward as expected after putting in a Bullish Engulfing candlestick pattern. A daily close above the 38.2% Fibonacci expansion at 10582 exposes the 50% level at 10606. Negative RSI divergence warns a pullback may be around the corner. A turn below support at 10554, the 23.6% Fib, opens the door for a test of the 14.6% expansion at 10536.

US Dollar Correction Risk Remains as Prices Touch 5-Month High

Daily Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

** The Dow Jones FXCM US Dollar Index and the Mirror Trader USD basket are not the same product.

S&P 500 TECHNICAL ANALYSISPrices declined as expected after putting in a bearish Evening Star candlestick pattern with negative RSI divergence. A bounce following a test of the 1900.00 figure sees prices aiming for resistance at 1954.20, the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement, with a close above that targeting the 76.4% level at 1968.40. Alternatively, a turn below the 50% Fib at 1942.80 aims for the 38.2% retracement at 1931.30.

US Dollar Correction Risk Remains as Prices Touch 5-Month High

Daily Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

GOLD TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – Prices launched higher as expected after putting in a bullish Piercing Line candlestick pattern. Resistance is now at 1320.12, the 38.2% Fibonacci expansion. A break above that on a daily closing basis exposes the 50% level at 1332.49. Alternatively, a reversal below the 23.6% Fib at 1304.81 clears the way for a test of the 14.6% expansion at 1295.37.

US Dollar Correction Risk Remains as Prices Touch 5-Month High

Daily Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

CRUDE OIL TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – Prices are attempting to recover after putting in a bullish Piercing Line candlestick pattern above support at a rising trend line set from June 2012. Near-term resistance is at 98.93, the 14.6% Fibonacci expansion, with a break above that exposing the 23.6% level at 100.41. Trend line support is now at 96.58.

US Dollar Correction Risk Remains as Prices Touch 5-Month High

Daily Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

--- Written by Ilya Spivak, Currency Strategist for DailyFX.com

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