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US Dollar May Weaken Before Rally Resumes, Gold Recovery Loses Steam

US Dollar May Weaken Before Rally Resumes, Gold Recovery Loses Steam

Ilya Spivak, Head Strategist, APAC

Talking Points:

  • US Dollar Technical Positioning Warns of Downswing Ahead
  • S&P 500 Bounce Interrupted After Two Days of Strong Gains
  • Gold Stalling as Recovery Loses Steam Above $1300/oz Mark

Can’t access the Dow Jones FXCM US Dollar Index? Try the USD basket on Mirror Trader. **

US DOLLAR TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – Prices may correct lower having rallied as expected after showing a Bullish Engulfing candlestick pattern. The argument for a pullback hinges on the appearance of a Shooting Star candlestick coupled with negative RSI divergence below resistance at 10560, the 50% Fibonacci retracement. A break below the 38.2% level at 10513 on a daily closing basis exposes a rising trend line established from the July 1 low, now at 10492. Alternatively, a move above 10560 clears the way for a challenge of the 61.8% Fib at 10606.

US Dollar May Weaken Before Rally Resumes, Gold Recovery Loses Steam

Daily Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

** The Dow Jones FXCM US Dollar Index and the Mirror Trader USD basket are not the same product.

S&P 500 TECHNICAL ANALYSISPrices declined as expected after putting in a bearish Evening Star candlestick pattern with negative RSI divergence. A bounce following a test of the 1900.00 figure sees prices testing resistance at 1942.80, the 50% Fibonacci retracement, with a close above that targeting the 61.8% level at 1944.20. Alternatively, a turn below the 38.2% Fib at 1931.30 aims for the 23.6% retracement at 1917.10.

US Dollar May Weaken Before Rally Resumes, Gold Recovery Loses Steam

Daily Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

GOLD TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – Prices launched higher as expected after putting in a bullish Piercing Line candlestick pattern. Resistance is now at 1320.12, the 38.2% Fibonacci expansion. A break above that on a daily closing basis exposes the 50% level at 1332.49. Alternatively, a reversal below the 23.6% Fib at 1304.81 clears the way for a test of the 14.6% expansion at 1295.37.

US Dollar May Weaken Before Rally Resumes, Gold Recovery Loses Steam

Daily Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

CRUDE OIL TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – Prices are attempting to recover after putting in a bullish Piercing Line candlestick pattern above support at a rising trend line set from June 2012. Near-term resistance is at 98.93, the 14.6% Fibonacci expansion, with a break above that exposing the 23.6% level at 100.41. Trend line support is now at 96.53.

US Dollar May Weaken Before Rally Resumes, Gold Recovery Loses Steam

Daily Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

--- Written by Ilya Spivak, Currency Strategist for DailyFX.com

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DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

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