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Crude Oil May Bounce from Trend Support, US Dollar at Risk of Pullback

Crude Oil May Bounce from Trend Support, US Dollar at Risk of Pullback

Ilya Spivak, Head Strategist, APAC

Talking Points:

  • US Dollar Chart Setup Hints a Pullback May Be Looming
  • S&P 500 Corrective Upswing Continues for Second Session
  • Crude Oil May Rebound from Two-Year Uptrend Support

Can’t access the Dow Jones FXCM US Dollar Index? Try the USD basket on Mirror Trader. **

US DOLLAR TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – Prices may be setting up for a pullback after rallying as expected having put in a Bullish Engulfing candle pattern. The emergence of negative RSI divergence below resistance at 10560, the 50% Fibonacci retracement, warns of ebbing upside momentum. A daily close below the 38.2% level at 10513 exposes a rising trend line established from the July 1 low, now at 10489. Alternatively, a push through resistance opens the door for a test of the 61.8% Fib at 10606.

Crude Oil May Bounce from Trend Support, US Dollar at Risk of Pullback

Daily Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

** The Dow Jones FXCM US Dollar Index and the Mirror Trader USD basket are not the same product.

S&P 500 TECHNICAL ANALYSISPrices declined as expected after putting in a bearish Evening Star candlestick pattern with negative RSI divergence. A bounce following a test of the 1900.00 figure sees prices testing resistance at 1942.80, the 50% Fibonacci retracement, with a close above that targeting the 61.8% level at 1944.20. Alternatively, a turn below the 38.2% Fib at 1931.30 aims for the 23.6% retracement at 1917.10.

Crude Oil May Bounce from Trend Support, US Dollar at Risk of Pullback

Daily Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

GOLD TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – Prices launched higher as expected after putting in a bullish Piercing Line candlestick pattern. Resistance is now at 1320.12, the 38.2% Fibonacci expansion. A break above that on a daily closing basis exposes the 50% level at 1332.49. Alternatively, a reversal below the 23.6% Fib at 1304.81 clears the way for a test of the 14.6% expansion at 1295.37.

Crude Oil May Bounce from Trend Support, US Dollar at Risk of Pullback

Daily Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

CRUDE OIL TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – Prices are attempting to recover after putting in a bullish Piercing Line candlestick pattern above support at a rising trend line set from June 2012. Near-term resistance is at 98.93, the 14.6% Fibonacci expansion, with a break above that exposing the 23.6% level at 100.41. Trend line support is now at 96.45.

Crude Oil May Bounce from Trend Support, US Dollar at Risk of Pullback

Daily Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

--- Written by Ilya Spivak, Currency Strategist for DailyFX.com

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DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

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