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US Dollar Vulnerable to Pullback, SPX 500 Selling Pressure Mounting

US Dollar Vulnerable to Pullback, SPX 500 Selling Pressure Mounting

Ilya Spivak, Head Strategist, APAC

Talking Points:

  • US Dollar Appears Vulnerable to a Corrective Down Move
  • S&P 500 Probing Below 1900 as Selling Pressure Mounts
  • Crude Oil Aims Higher at Support, Gold Bounce Continues

Can’t access the Dow Jones FXCM US Dollar Index? Try the USD basket on Mirror Trader. **

US DOLLAR TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – Prices may be setting up for a pullback after rallying as expected having put in a Bullish Engulfing candle pattern. The emergence of negative RSI divergence below resistance at 10560, the 50% Fibonacci retracement, warns of ebbing upside momentum. A daily close below the 38.2% level at 10513 exposes a rising trend line established from the July 1 low, now at 10481. Alternatively, a push through resistance opens the door for a test of the 61.8% Fib at 10606.

US Dollar Vulnerable to Pullback, SPX 500 Selling Pressure Mounting

Daily Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

** The Dow Jones FXCM US Dollar Index and the Mirror Trader USD basket are not the same product.

S&P 500 TECHNICAL ANALYSISPrices declined as expected after putting in a bearish Evening Star candlestick pattern with negative RSI divergence. A break below the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement at 1921.80 has exposed the 50% level at 1900.30. Moving further below that eyes the 61.8% Fib at 1878.70. Alternatively, a reversal back above 1921.80 opens the door for a test of the 23.6% retracement at 1948.40.

US Dollar Vulnerable to Pullback, SPX 500 Selling Pressure Mounting

Daily Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

GOLD TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – Prices launched higher as expected after putting in a bullish Piercing Line candlestick pattern. Resistance is now at 1320.12, the 38.2% Fibonacci expansion. A break above that on a daily closing basis exposes the 50% level at 1332.49. Alternatively, a reversal below the 23.6% Fib at 1304.81 clears the way for a test of the 14.6% expansion at 1295.37.

US Dollar Vulnerable to Pullback, SPX 500 Selling Pressure Mounting

Daily Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

CRUDE OIL TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – Prices are attempting to recover after putting in a bullish Piercing Line candlestick pattern above support at a rising trend line set from June 2012. Near-term resistance is at 98.93, the 14.6% Fibonacci expansion, with a break above that exposing the 23.6% level at 100.41. Trend lien support is now at 96.45.

US Dollar Vulnerable to Pullback, SPX 500 Selling Pressure Mounting

Daily Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

--- Written by Ilya Spivak, Currency Strategist for DailyFX.com

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DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

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