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Crude Oil Threatens 2-Year Trend Support, US Dollar Consolidating

Crude Oil Threatens 2-Year Trend Support, US Dollar Consolidating

Ilya Spivak, Head Strategist, APAC

Talking Points:

  • US Dollar Consolidating After Setting a Four-Month High
  • S&P 500 Selloff Stalls But Continued Weakness is Expected
  • Gold Retakes $1300 Figure, Crude Oil Eyes 2-Year Support

Can’t access the Dow Jones FXCM US Dollar Index? Try the USD basket on Mirror Trader. **

US DOLLAR TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – Prices are digesting gains after rising as expected following the formation of a Bullish Engulfing candle pattern. Near-term resistance is at 10560, the 50% Fibonacci retracement, with a daily close above that exposing the 61.8% level at 10606. Alternatively, a reversal below resistance-turned-support in the 10513-27 area marked by the May 28 high and 38.2% Fib opens the door for a test of a horizontal pivot in play since late April at 10481.

Crude Oil Threatens 2-Year Trend Support, US Dollar Consolidating

Daily Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

** The Dow Jones FXCM US Dollar Index and the Mirror Trader USD basket are not the same product.

S&P 500 TECHNICAL ANALYSISPrices declined as expected after putting in a bearish Evening Star candlestick pattern with negative RSI divergence. A break below the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement at 1921.80 has exposed the 50% level at 1900.30. Moving further below that eyes the 61.8% Fib at 1878.70. Alternatively, a reversal back above 1921.80 opens the door for a test of the 23.6% retracement at 1948.40.

Crude Oil Threatens 2-Year Trend Support, US Dollar Consolidating

Daily Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

GOLD TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – Prices launched higher as expected after putting in a bullish Piercing Line candlestick pattern. Resistance is now at 1320.12, the 38.2% Fibonacci expansion. A break above that on a daily closing basis exposes the 50% level at 1332.49. Alternatively, a reversal below the 23.6% Fib at 1304.81 clears the way for a test of the 14.6% expansion at 1295.37.

Crude Oil Threatens 2-Year Trend Support, US Dollar Consolidating

Daily Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

CRUDE OIL TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – Prices dropped below support in the 97.30-34 area, marked by the March 17 low and the 76.4% Fibonacci expansion, exposes a rising trend line set from June 2012 (now at 96.42). A further push below that aims for the 100% level at 95.26. Alternatively, a reversal back above 97.34 targets the 61.8% Fib at 98.56.

Crude Oil Threatens 2-Year Trend Support, US Dollar Consolidating

Daily Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

--- Written by Ilya Spivak, Currency Strategist for DailyFX.com

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DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

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