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US Dollar Waiting for Direction Cues, SPX 500 at Risk of Deeper Losses

US Dollar Waiting for Direction Cues, SPX 500 at Risk of Deeper Losses

Ilya Spivak, Head Strategist, APAC

Talking Points:

  • US Dollar Awaits Direction Cues Having Set 4-Month High
  • S&P 500 Vulnerable to Deeper Losses After Support Break
  • Crude Oil Sellers Continue to Challenge March Swing Low

Can’t access the Dow Jones FXCM US Dollar Index? Try the USD basket on Mirror Trader. **

US DOLLAR TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – Prices are consolidating gains after turning higher as expected having put in a Bullish Engulfing candle pattern. A daily close above resistance at 10560, the 50% Fibonacci retracement, exposes the 61.8% level at 10606. Alternatively, a turn back below resistance-turned-support in the 10513-27 area marked by the May 28 high and 38.2% Fib clears a path for a challenge of 10481, the intersection of a horizontal pivot in play since April and a rising trend line established from the July 1 low.

US Dollar Waiting for Direction Cues, SPX 500 at Risk of Deeper Losses

Daily Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

** The Dow Jones FXCM US Dollar Index and the Mirror Trader USD basket are not the same product.

S&P 500 TECHNICAL ANALYSISPrices declined as expected after putting in a bearish Evening Star candlestick pattern with negative RSI divergence. A break below the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement at 1921.80 has exposed the 50% level at 1900.30. Moving further below that eyes the 61.8% Fib at 1878.70. Alternatively, a reversal back above 1921.80 opens the door for a test of the 23.6% retracement at 1948.40.

US Dollar Waiting for Direction Cues, SPX 500 at Risk of Deeper Losses

Daily Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

GOLD TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – Prices put in a bullish Piercing Line candlestick pattern, hinting a move higher may be ahead. Initial resistance is at 1295.37, the 14.6% Fibonacci expansion. A break above that on a daily closing basis exposes the 23.6% level at 1304.81. Near-term support is at 1278.65, marked by the intersection of a horizontal pivot in play since early April and a falling trend line connecting major lows from late June.

US Dollar Waiting for Direction Cues, SPX 500 at Risk of Deeper Losses

Daily Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

CRUDE OIL TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – Prices are testing support in the 97.30-34 area, marked by the March 17 low and the 76.4% Fibonacci expansion. A break below that on a daily closing basis exposes a rising trend line set from June 2012, now at 96.40. Alternatively, a reversal above the 61.8% level at 98.56 aims for the 99.00 figure, followed by the 50% Fib at 99.58.

US Dollar Waiting for Direction Cues, SPX 500 at Risk of Deeper Losses

Daily Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

--- Written by Ilya Spivak, Currency Strategist for DailyFX.com

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DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

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