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Crude Oil Selloff Stalls at Chart Support, SPX 500 Hits Two-Month Low

Crude Oil Selloff Stalls at Chart Support, SPX 500 Hits Two-Month Low

2014-08-04 04:03:00
Ilya Spivak, Head Strategist, APAC
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Talking Points:

  • US Dollar Digesting Gains After Taking Out June Swing Top
  • S&P 500 Tumbles to 2-Month Low, Tests Chart Support Level
  • Crude Oil Meets Support at 5-Month Low, Gold May Bounce

Can’t access the Dow Jones FXCM US Dollar Index? Try the USD basket on Mirror Trader. **

US DOLLAR TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – Prices are consolidating gains after turning higher as expected having put in a Bullish Engulfing candle pattern. A daily close above resistance at 10560, the 50% Fibonacci retracement, exposes the 61.8% level at 10606. Alternatively, a turn back below resistance-turned-support marked by the May 28 high at 10531 clears a path for a challenge of the 38.2% Fib at 10513.

Crude Oil Selloff Stalls at Chart Support, SPX 500 Hits Two-Month Low

Daily Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

** The Dow Jones FXCM US Dollar Index and the Mirror Trader USD basket are not the same product.

S&P 500 TECHNICAL ANALYSISPrices turned lower as expected after putting in a bearish Evening Star candlestick pattern bolstered by negative RSI divergence. Sellers are testing the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement at 1921.80, with a break below that on a daily closing basis exposing the 50% level at 1900.30. Alternatively, a reversal above the 23.6% Fib at 1948.40 clears the way for a challenge of the 14.6% retracement at 1964.80.

Crude Oil Selloff Stalls at Chart Support, SPX 500 Hits Two-Month Low

Daily Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

GOLD TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – Prices put in a bullish Piercing Line candlestick pattern, hinting a move higher may be ahead. Initial resistance is at 1295.37, the 14.6% Fibonacci expansion. A break above that on a daily closing basis exposes the 23.6% level at 1304.81. Near-term support is at 1278.65, marked by the intersection of a horizontal pivot in play since early April and a falling trend line connecting major lows from late June.

Crude Oil Selloff Stalls at Chart Support, SPX 500 Hits Two-Month Low

Daily Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

CRUDE OIL TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – Prices dropped to challenge support in the 97.30-34 area, marked by the March 17 low and the 76.4% Fibonacci expansion. A break below that on a daily closing basis exposes a rising trend line set from June 2012, now at 96.32. Alternatively, a reversal above the 61.8% level at 98.56 aims for the 99.00 figure, followed by the 50% Fib at 99.58.

Crude Oil Selloff Stalls at Chart Support, SPX 500 Hits Two-Month Low

Daily Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

--- Written by Ilya Spivak, Currency Strategist for DailyFX.com

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