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Crude Oil Aiming Lower, US Dollar Rally Pauses at Six-Week High

Crude Oil Aiming Lower, US Dollar Rally Pauses at Six-Week High

Ilya Spivak, Head Strategist, APAC

Talking Points:

  • US Dollar Stalls at 6-Week High Before Key Event Risk
  • S&P 500 May Be Carving Out a Top Below 2000 Mark
  • Crude Oil Aiming Below $101.00 After Support Break

Can’t access the Dow Jones FXCM US Dollar Index? Try the USD basket on Mirror Trader. **

US DOLLAR TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – Prices continue to advance as expected after putting in a Bullish Engulfing candle pattern at support set from October 2013. A daily close above the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement at 10456 has exposed a horizontal pivot at 10481. Pushing further beyond that targets the 38.2% level at 10513. Alternatively, reversal back below 10456 opens the door for a challenge of a rising trend line set from the July 1 low at 10447.

Crude Oil Aiming Lower, US Dollar Rally Pauses at Six-Week High

Daily Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

** The Dow Jones FXCM US Dollar Index and the Mirror Trader USD basket are not the same product.

S&P 500 TECHNICAL ANALYSISPrices put in a bearish Evening Star candlestick pattern, hinting a move lower may be ahead. Negative RSI divergence bolsters the case for a downside scenario. A daily close below rising channel floor support at 1968.60 exposes the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement at 1948.40. Near-term resistance is at 1991.40, the July 24 high.

Crude Oil Aiming Lower, US Dollar Rally Pauses at Six-Week High

Daily Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

GOLD TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – Prices are drifting cautiously lower having topped below $1350/oz three weeks ago. Near-term support is in the 1284.09-87.13 area, marked by a falling trend line set from late June and the 38.2% Fibonacci expansion. A break below that on a daily closing basis exposes the 50% level at 1269.22. Alternatively, a reversal above the 23.6% Fib at 1309.20 eyes the 14.6% expansion at 1322.94.

Crude Oil Aiming Lower, US Dollar Rally Pauses at Six-Week High

Daily Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

CRUDE OIL TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – Prices edged below support at 101.87, the 23.6% Fibonacci expansion, exposing the 38.2% level at 100.61. This barrier is reinforced by a rising channel top at 100.28. A break below that on a daily closing basis eyes the 50% Fib at 99.58. Alternatively, a turn back above 101.87 eyes the July 18 highat 103.91.

Crude Oil Aiming Lower, US Dollar Rally Pauses at Six-Week High

Daily Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

--- Written by Ilya Spivak, Currency Strategist for DailyFX.com

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