Gold Prices Resume Down Move, Eyeing July Swing Bottom

2014-07-24 06:32:00 Ilya Spivak, Head Strategist, APAC

Talking Points:

US Dollar Rally Trying to Restart After Brief Setback
S&P 500 Rekindles Rally, Sets Another Record High
Gold Prices Resume Selloff, Move to Retest July Low

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US DOLLAR TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – Prices are edging upward as expected after putting in a Bullish Engulfing candle pattern at support set from October 2013. Near-term resistance is at 10456, the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement, with a daily close above that exposing the 38.2% level at 10513. Alternatively, turn beneath rising trend line support set from the July 1 low at 10434 clears the way for a challenge of the July 9 low at 10392, followed by a triple bottom in the 10354-75 area.

Daily Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

** The Dow Jones FXCM US Dollar Index and the Mirror Trader USD basket are not the same product.

S&P 500 TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – Prices resumed their move upward to set a new record high. Near-term resistance is at 1995.80, the 38.2% Fibonacci expansion, with a break above that on a daily closing basis exposing the 50% level at 2010.40. Alternatively, a reversal below the 23.6% Fib at 1977.70 aims for the bottom of a rising channel set from mid-April, now at 1962.80.

Daily Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

GOLD TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – Prices are testing below support at 1297.74, the 50% Fibonacci expansion. A daily close below that exposes the 61.8% level at 1291.48. Alternatively, a reversal above the 38.2% Fib at 1304.00 aims for the 23.6% expansion at 1311.75.

Daily Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

CRUDE OIL TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – Prices are consolidating above support at 101.87, the 23.6% Fibonacci expansion. A break below that on a daily closing basis exposes the 38.2% level at 100.61. Near-term resistance is at 103.91, the July 18 high, with a move above that eyeing 104.73.