US Dollar Touches One-Month High, Gold in Consolidation Mode

2014-07-23 04:04:00 Ilya Spivak, Head Strategist, APAC

Talking Points:

US Dollar Inches Upward to Tag a 1-Month High
S&P 500 Remains Capped Below July Swing Top
Crude Oil Retreats, Gold in Consolidation Mode

Can’t access the Dow Jones FXCM US Dollar Index? Try the USD basket on Mirror Trader. **

US DOLLAR TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – Prices rebounded as expected after putting in a Bullish Engulfing candle pattern at support set from October 2013. A daily close above the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement at 10456 initially exposes the 38.2% level at 10513. Alternatively, reversal below rising trend line support set from the July 1 low at 10430 opens the door for a test of the July 9 low at 10392, followed by a triple bottom in the 10354-75 area.

Daily Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

** The Dow Jones FXCM US Dollar Index and the Mirror Trader USD basket are not the same product.

S&P 500 TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – Prices are begrudgingly inching lower as expected after putting in a bearish Evening Star candlestick pattern. A daily close below support at the bottom of a rising channel set from mid-April – now at 1960.80 – exposes the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement at 1938.50. Alternatively, a reversal above resistance in the 1977.70-85.90 area, marked by the 23.6% Fib expansion and the July 3 high, clears the way for a test of the 38.2% expansion at 1995.80.

Daily Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

GOLD TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – Prices have mounted a corrective recovery after turning downward as expected. A break above the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement at 1320.34 on a daily closing basis initially exposes the 14.6% level at 1329.78. Alternatively, a move below the 38.2% level at 1305.3 opens the door for a test of the 50% Fib at 1292.66.

Daily Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

CRUDE OIL TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – A rapid recovery has stalled below the $104/barrel figure. A break below support at 101.87, the 23.6% Fibonacci expansion, on daily closing basis exposes the 38.2% level at 100.61. Near-term resistance is at 102.65, the 14.6% Fib, followed by the July 18 high at 103.91.